Don't agree with you are all, but then I only group with friends and guild mates, tried PUG's and almost every time they were disasters would rather go back to boxing then doing PUGS
Just read through the entire thread must have missed that post, only see 3 responses from a red name and nothing about In post 8 Radarx posted There are no plans for any types of mergers at this time but we'll certainly announce that if it becomes necessary. Saying servers are "empty" is a little bit of an exaggeration. While I can understand frustration with the waiting period on character transfers there are viable populations across each server. In post 31 Radarx posted To clarify, I used the word viable which would indicate feasibility. Healthy is a completely different and very subjective term that I would argue is extremely hard to nail down. We would certainly differ on success criteria for servers, but that's the great thing about the forums. Differing opinions! In post 48 Radarx posted I was hopeful this could continue as a constructive discussion, but we've had things get a little too personal and occasionally non-constructive. At this point we need to close it. Thank you for your feedback! the only post in there was based on pure speculation with no supporting evidence, that was in post 40
I believe those numbers, but I haven't been to a psychiatrist in a while. Can you elaborate on what exact errors you find in those numbers? There were a few people who misunderstood what the numbers indicated. I hesitate to listen to someone who says "those numbers must be fake, but I can't tell you why!" over a repeatable number with no motivations behind it. The numbers give a count of the number of CHARACTERS that were logged in AT LEAST ONCE during the 3 month window. Now, I realize that characters != accounts, but a division by 5 lines up with numbers I've heard elsewhere. I do think less people post on the forum than ever before, and less people talk in the public channels, but a lot of that can be attributed to a gradual souring and negativity of the EQ2 community. I enjoyed 1-9 and 80-89 before the server merges. I stopped watching them about a year afterwards as I just could not stand the vileness any longer.
the numbers were proven as someone said take the numbers of characters logged in once during 3 months, divide by 3 months to get per month, divide by 30 days a month and you get how many logged in a day, divide by 5 is what you said for accounts and you are left with the "estimate" which is awfully low. here let me walk you through this step by step. on the 2nd highest server You listed. Freeport : 57,003 divide by 3 months 19001 divide by 30 days a month 633.333 divide by 5 per account 126.67 and take a server that is about medium Guk : 39,037 months 13012 days : 433 accounts : 86 lets not even account for the bot groups etc. the number of characters that are created in 3 months and than deleted. the number you say don't talk in the channels, the ones that only log in for raids, are you saying 126 is alot? and it just goes down from there
Why would divide it? It's character log ins in a given period. It's not counting multiple logins by the same characters so dividing it by month/day only screws the numbers big time. Dividing it by 5 is a guesstimate of how many toons players have on average. And while I would guess that is too low it still makes sense. Your calculations are absolutely useless unless it's unique logins.
You cannot divide the number of players logging in over a 3 month period by 3 and get the number of players logging in in 1 month. Math does not work that way.
which is what I told him. that the numbers are useless since they probably aren't unique logins, but lets say they are for him. dividing it would give you the number of people on average per day. since it was over a 3 month period of people in that are uniquepeople and not the same account, which is where the divide by 5 comes from
of course not, since most people have toons that log in for something except to farm old zones, some get deleted in 3 months. I'm just proving that your numbers are as inaccurate as can be really. why post 3 months when it says nothing really?
No it wouldn't. That would only apply with unique logins. Since it doesn't count multiple logins of the same character dividing it doesn't add any information at all. If 10000 people were logging in every day of that period and played 23h/day they would have been counted as 10000 by Feldon and as (10000/3)/30=111.11 by you. Now tell me again your method is of any use.
so what you are saying is if the same people logged in the same toons every day for 3 months, it would be accurate, thats where the account factor comes in. If you look in the other forum about it I asked him if it was unique to your toon or not, (as many others did) and no response, I believe it's not unique. /shrugs so dividing it would work if not unique
No. Your "method" is wrong because all of the 10000 logged in every day. So on average there were 10000 people online a day and not 111.
It is the number of unique character logins over a 3 month period. Suzie visits Bobby's house 10 times in January, 5 times in February, and 0 times in March. She visited 15 times in 3 months, or 0.1666666666666667 per day. However we don't have those numbers. All we know is that she visited at least ONCE in 90 days. Try to divide 1 by 90 and you get 0.0111111111111111 per day. You are off by 1,500%. And that's for just 1 player. I repeat: Statistics does not work the way you are trying to work it.
well when statistics are a mere guestimation..they don't count. Only soe knows the true pops and they aren't talking. you all could argue your theories till this turns to page 7 and what does it prove? nothing.
Ok...I don't know what disturbs me more, the fact that you responded to the monthly whine of server merge requests or that you almost never respond to serious inquiries, especially those in the class forums.
Feldon isn't the first person to use math to get results data based on incomplete information, he's not 'guessing' his calculation is a general estimation of unique accounts logged in over a three month period. It could be optimistic or it could be a pessimistic estimation. These are parts to his calculation *The number of unique characters logged in on said server over 3 months. *Division of said numbers by 3 to get an average charater logins per month. *assumes for every account has 5 toons, no more, no less. *Division of resulted numbers by 5 to get an average account logins per month. Math may never have been my strong suit but in the absence of solid data from SOE feldon's calculation is the closest gauge of account logins for the server in question. You can change the results by altering the second division to skew it one way or the other but anyone competent in basic math and a rudimentary understanding of science should see that the calculation is valid. This kind of math is a useful tool to scientists who don't always have all the data and have to add assumptions and theories into the holes in their calculations.
Population isn't everything anyway, If you have 1000 players logging in each day for 1 hour and just standing around afk for 45 of the 60 minutes then the game is going to feel much emptier than if you have 200 players logging in each day for 3 hours each and spending 150 of the 180 minutes in pugs.
Replying primarily to the part I emphasized with bold type. That part isn't what Feldon did. That part is what the people arguing with him are trying to do. Let me use myself as an example. I have 54 characters (as of the last time I bothered to count them) across four gold accounts. However, all 54 characters don't get played every day. Some don't get played for months (and there have been some characters that had a year or more of virtual dust on them). There are nine of my characters that are logged in almost daily (if for no other reason than to react to the Skinner box they call a tradeskill apprentice for each one of them - since they are all max level crafters). If someone tried dividing those nine toons by three, that would result in an average of three characters being logged in every day during a given month - which would be incorrect, since all nine were logged in almost every day of the entire three month period in question. That said, I am not arguing against your overall premise - just that particular portion. While Feldon's data may not be based upon complete information, it is quite a bit closer than those that are basing their assessments off of rumor, feeling, or anecdotal evidence.
