key chances

Discussion in 'Items and Equipment' started by q-ruf, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. Regolas Well-Known Member

    So you guys that have opened 1000+ keys to get your myth, do you feel the time/cost involved was worth it?
  2. Tetrol Well-Known Member

    No. Wouldn't mind if there was variety in the "non-myth" loot, but getting 6 - 7 of the same item in a row makes it feel pointless/frustrating. The Christmas double status did make it good for guild levelling though (I hadn't cashed in the silver keys, so got a heap of status bonus)
  3. Sylke Well-Known Member


    No, not really. I have ~1200 gold keys sitting in my bags because it's not worth the hassle of clicking the gold chest so I can salvage the items. The only mildly useful item from the platinum chest is the altar and, once your guild hall has all of those, they lose their usefulness. Don't get me started on the umbrites (3 possible rewards is not enough; why is the mythical No Trade?).

    It seems that the overarching design philosophy for ToT was "RNG is King."
    DoomDrake and Beee like this.
  4. Allanna Member


    I don't know how many keys I've opened, but I have over 1500 gold keys in inventory right now (stopped turning those in awhile ago) and still don't have my myth. For now I've given up. In all honesty I wish I had just started selling them after I got my altar. They were going for over 1k for awhile, and 1k+ keys is a million plat. I'm sure I'll try again, but for now I'll sell them while they still go for about 500.

    I really think they should include a trade in system for those useless keys. Yes, I can spend hours turning in gold keys and salvaging them, and making crappy infusers to sell (I say crappy because they have the same max as the standard ones you get from every mission, which imo makes them useless. Even at 100%, anyone who's taken the time to see how infusers work, would use up all the standard ones first and have no need for these) give us an option to trade in old keys. Even if its like.. 15 gold keys and 10pp for 1 plat key and 15 plat keys and 100pp for 1 umbrite key, at least you can work towards something apart from having to beat the RNG twice (first in getting the key, secondly in getting the loot from the chest)
    Liou_Unrest and Xillean like this.
  5. Tetrol Well-Known Member

    The frustration in the system is in the DOUBLE draw. First having to get an umbrite key - seems between 0.5% and 1.5% depending on how lucky you are. Then you have to get through a second low percentage draw to get something other than what you got previously, let alone a Mythical. Surely adding some different "2nd prizes" couldn't have been difficult. Having 8 * "Ring of War" or Pandora's Portmanteau is more than frustrating. The chance of getting a Mythical throwing weapon for a Ranger as mentioned somewhere would also be a bummer.
  6. Leeroy 16 year vet. Forum lurker. Altaholic.

    I haven't gotten an umbrite key on this character, ever. FIRST time I run a timed quest with my conjuror, she gets an umbrite key. Go figure. Unfortunately, her "mythical prize" was a fabled ring, the sort you get in the plat chest. Not bad, but certainly not what i wanted from an umbrite chest. I'll just keep plugging away and eventually get more.
  7. kluxor Well-Known Member

    There's a reason why the chances of getting these best in slot items are rare and take lots of attempts to get...because nearly ANYONE can get them. Whether you like it or not, they're balanced by power vs rarity. If you were guaranteed to get one after X amount of keys, the rewards wouldn't be nearly as powerful as they are. If you don't like it, don't do'em, simple as that
    Jaden likes this.
  8. Tetrol Well-Known Member

    I find that last answer simplistic. Yes there is a factor to make the reward rare - TWICE. If you really go for it, you can do a number of the quests in about 3 minutes each. I get about 0.7% * umbrite. (some get more, some less) or about 140 quests per umbite. 7 hours each. I think that qualifies as rare without the likelihood of then having to go through a second lotto (nowhere near enough rolls to get any useful statistics) for something either good or not repeated 8 times.
  9. Jaden Well-Known Member

    ---------------

    Thanks for the post Balcerak.

    Your experience is exactly what my friends have experienced and I posted and asked/wondered if more like you had also: Those who steady buy up/farm up/open up are reporting horrendous results. Those who are playing the game and just going along getting what they are getting when NOT focusing specifically and only and fixating-ly on the chests, are getting some motivating loot from this. Surely you and others playing and opening at a lower rate but with enjoyable loot results cannot ALL be explained away with: "they're just luckier than I am." Sounds like you are enjoying the new expac ^-^.
  10. Jaden Well-Known Member

  11. Entropy Well-Known Member


    I second this. ~225 completely useless gold keys for one umbrite? Yeah, small consolation prize, and doesn't bump the overall chance way out of whack, but it would still be nice.
    Liou_Unrest likes this.
  12. Philleon0000000000 New Member

    I really love the message received "fabled reward" opening platinum chest and its all legendary crap, a couple of the items I have already looted in advanced solo runs ...... thought the plat chest were to be on par with heroic zone loot........... just going to broker keys from now on............. unless something changes.
    azcn2503 likes this.
  13. Aivet Well-Known Member

    So far I've cleaned off 88 keys, which has resulted in 86 gold keys and 2 platinum. I only bother doing the key quests if I happen to be passing the area they're in now.
  14. Sigrdrifa EQ2 Wiki Author

    There's a loot table (at least partial) at http://eq2library.com/tot/treasure-hunt/

    That will let you look at the possible rewards and decide whether you want to spend effort on them. I want the myth ranged weapon and a few more altars, myself, and my alts can still use some stuff :)
  15. Amaitae Active Member

    dont use keys immediately, collect like 100-200 and then use.
    DoomDrake likes this.
  16. DoomDrake Well-Known Member

    People do not have patience .. that is the problem ...
    Opening key by key or stack of 10-20 keys don't do any good for you. Although getting certain type of key indeed involve random generator it's not that simple. We do not know for sure what is real maximum chance for each type of key we do know that if you do not have minimum amount of keys your chances dramatically drops ..
    To illustrate ... platinum keys are more or less have chance 10% but to see this chance actually you need to have stack 30+ key (or at least 20). Same goes with umbrit (but here we do not have good number when someone opens in keys in large bulks - and under large I understand 200+)
    So as previous poster suggested - be patient - get at least 101 or better 201 keys (at least) and than open them at once ... you will surprise by result :)
    Now same goes to getting desired loot I can't confirm it yet but in order to get myth with good chance you need to use 6+ umbrit in row (yes you can get your myth earlier and that calls good luck but statistically fishishing out of chest something that have chance 10-15% of pool of items does require have 6-10 keys to guaranty a good roll
  17. Aivet Well-Known Member

    I simply do not believe that the outcome of opening a key is based on how many keys you have in your inventory, or how many keys you open at once. This would imply that the probability of a non-gold key is not constant.

    I opened a stack of 6 or 7 (can't recall exactly) once on my main, otherwise all the keys I've opened have been pretty much when I get them.

    As I stated previously, my main has opened 88 keys, of which 86 have been gold and 2 platinum. That's a platinum key rate of about 2.27%. Assuming that a non-gold key has a 10% chance of appearing, the chances of that happening* are about 0.44%.

    My alt (who again opened keys pretty much as soon as they were acquired) has opened 34 keys and received 31 gold keys and 3 platinum keys. That's a platinum key rate of 8.82%. The chances of that happening* are about 22.8%.

    Given these two results, what can I conclude? Well, firstly, that my alt is getting around the 10% platinum key results, without opening a stack greater than two. Second of all, my main has had some poor luck** but nowhere near what I would define as "unusual" or "suspect". I would also bet a dirty key that mine isn't the least productive run of keys that the game has seen.

    To sum up: I would love to see the difference between the number of non-gold keys obtained by someone opening 10k keys in groups of 200, versus the number of non-gold keys from someone opening the same amount one or two at a time. I would reckon that there's no statistically significant difference between the two.

    * Using binomial probability. I define "success" in a trial (opening a key) as getting a non-gold key, and assume that the chance of getting a non-gold key is 10%, or 0.1. If you want to fiddle around with binomial probability, stattrek has a nifty binomial probability calculator.
    ** I define good luck as "having a random trial produce a result I desire" and poor luck as "I wish a random trial would produce the result I want instead of being random".
  18. Terces New Member

    Fix The drop rate of mythical weapons and quit screwing over us channelers and rangers PLEASE AND THANKS!
  19. DoomDrake Well-Known Member

    I don't have stomach to accumulate 200 keys so I open them once I get 101 or 102 and open it ... I need run couple more test to more accurate tell % on umbrites but for platinum (with samples between 42 to 102) - I am very confidently can say platinum keys from such samples 10% but again to get those % you must have large enough stack of keys
  20. RedBB Active Member

    [IMG]

    After an absurd amount of plat for this experiment I have come to the conclusion there is no "chance" at a mythical. You have about the same odds as getting the stupid duck portal. All the keys in the world will not change the drop rate I have seen to date. 70% for the charm 30% for the ring and go duck yourself on the myth. It is a carrot to keep us from noticing the utter lack of content. They are a stones throw away from the PWE method of making you pay cash for the keys for a chance to win something that will be obsolete inside of 6months. Key drop rate came out to 1 umbrite for every 150 keys. 200 at a time or 15 at a time made little difference. 10 umbrite keys later all I had to show was a mess of epic infusers and a new loathing for DBG and a new found fondness for SOE.