Tradeskills Probabilty of Success Formula

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by si-danger, Jul 26, 2018.

  1. si-danger New Member

    Can anyone point me in the direction of a formula for working out the success rate of a combine? I noticed that EQ Traders has a calculator but that seems out of date as it only allows 3 digits for the prime stat.
  2. svann Augur

    I think thats as accurate as you are going to find.
    The base stat is only used to determine chance of skillup not success rate.
  3. si-danger New Member

    Ah right, thank you very much.
  4. Ngreth Thergn Developer

    (I may be wrong so removing this)
    Yinla likes this.
  5. Ngreth Thergn Developer

    Here is the relevant part of the EQTC code:

        //run the base success formula 
    if ($data['trivial'] < 68) {
    $success $skill $data['trivial'] + 66;
        } else {
    $success = ($skill-($data['trivial'] * 0.75)) + 51.5;
    // If skill is 0, ignore tradeskill AA
        // if skill is greater, calculate the fail modifier to success, and increment success by that.
    if ($data['skill'] > 0) {
    $fail 100-$success;
    $fail $aa*$fail/100;
    $success += $fail;
    //cap success
    if ($success 5$success 5;
        if (
    $success 95$success 95;
    //as skill gets greater than trivial, in steps of 40, reduce the chance to fail further.
        //this could probably be done formulaicly instead of conditionally
    if ($data['skill'] > $data['trivial']) {
            if ((
    $data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 200) {
    $success 100;
            } else if ((
    $data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 160) {
    $success 100 - ((100-$success)*(.20));
            } else if ((
    $data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 120) {
    $success 100 - ((100-$success)*(.40));
            } else if ((
    $data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 80) {
    $success 100 - ((100-$success)*(.60));
                    } else if ((
    $data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 40) {
    $success 100 - ((100-$success)*(.80));
    Nniki, Axxius, Sancus and 2 others like this.
  6. Feznik Elder

    The above formula doesn't seem to be accurate for all tradeskills. I have done close to if not more than 1000 conflagrant charm/range slot combines, and the success rate is no where close to what that formula shows for pottery. I'd say the success rate with a skill of 367 (modified by trophy), is about 55--60%. I was doing 200-300 combines at a time using Draught of the Craftsman too.

    I've had better success rates (70-75% or so) doing 200+ combines at a time using a tradeskill such as Research , in which I have a lower level of skill.

    So, there is something hidden going on behind the scenes dependent on the tradeskill.

    I would not go by that formula at all.
  7. Fanra Augur

    Ngreth, will you verify that the code you pasted is correct for calculating success?

  8. Ngreth Thergn Developer

    well. #1, there are recipes in the game with an increased failure rate. Not confirming or denying it with this, but you can't automatically say that formula is wrong :)
    #2 Nope :) It is what is on EQTC.
    A dev 10 years ago said it was correct
    (I'm not aware of any changes to the success chance in those 10 years)
    Yinla and Fanra like this.

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