I am playing on Coirnav and I like to do off-hour named camping in RCOD. I have a pattern where I kill the PH and move to the next one. I have been able to get many muramite runes in this fashion. In the last few days I have killed six placeholders eight times each with no name spawn. Not one spawn out of 48 spawn chances. It seems to me like DBG is actively trying to kill this game at times. Maybe I'm just unlucky, but the spawn rate was fairly good until last week. What gives here? Is zero for 48 really an appropriate spawn chance to keep people wanting to play?
Random number generator hates you...EQ knows when you need a mob to spawn and it will gather all it's infernal resources to keep that from happening. As a tip I've found that if I'm really looking to spawn rare mobs in a given zone I wipe everything out. It's been my experience that lots of repops seems to help but most old timers will have their own voodoo for getting a rare named which for some includes sacrificing young elves taken from Gfay.
Each encounter table roll is independent of the rest. If the odds of a rare spawning is 4%, for example, the odds that the 48th spawn will be a rare after 47 spawns were non-rare is still 4%. It is not only possible, but expected, to see streaks of frequent or infrequent rare spawns. I promise that the development team is not tinkering with the rare spawn chance in Ruined City of Dranik halfway between updates.
When dealing with chances there is an example I like to use. Imagine you are rolling a 20 sided die, what is more likely: You roll a 20 on first try or You roll 55 times and never get a 20? Answer, the second. 5% chance on first, 6% to go 55 without getting a 20.
So, if my math is correct . . . (big if of course) No success in spawning mob in 48 tries: (1-4/48)^48 = 1.5% Gotta love that RNG.
Your math is close but slightly off. It is (1 - probability of event happening)^(number of attempts) = probability your desired outcome will not occur given x number of attempts. In the OPs example the formula is (1 - .04)^48 = 0.1409 or roughly 14% On average you have a better than 1 out of 10 chance of being skunked on 48 attempts. Low chance sure, but not absurdly low. As was stated earlier, on any one attempt you have a 96% probability of not getting what you want. The above formula is only for calculating the probability that you don't get what you want over x number of attempts.
Seriously its True .. I had a daiily in bot and needed to kill elements or Heligs .. Heligs were nowhere to be seen or very rare once i completed task. I must of seen and killed 10 heligs in like 1 round of spawns .. its just like Stop lights too late at night they see you coming and no other car insight it turns red on you out of the blue .. they see you coming or know what you need i swear its the rise of Skynet .. mark my words the End is Near..
You are continuously adding code to the game to prevent people from being jerks to each other on TLP's, how about adding code to prevent the game from being a jerk to people to? Isn't it about time? One way to do it could be: If a mob has 1 PH spot, if 9 PH's has been killed and no named has popped, the 10th is always a named. If a named has 4 PH spots, if there has not been a named after 39 mobs, the 40th will always bee a named. Isn't it about time you add something like this? Should be "relatively easy" to add general code like this that picks out the number of PH spawn spots, does the calculation and has a counter for each named which resets to 0 every time a named pops?
