Rizlona vs Aradune... which will have better pop?

What do we think?

Define "better". Largest? Aradune. Less toxic? probably Rizlona.

WAY overcamped BoT Key Mobs? Rizlona

Probably easier to find groups on Aradune especially come launch time. Lot more auto filled groups on Rizlona due to lax box rules.

Long term plan on trying Rizlona, more box armies probably more big camps being farmed across potential multiple picks. Probably not as likely for them to jump ship to next TLE next spring, unless they cave and try to do a free trade TLE with AOCs.

I have no doubt that aradune will have more players but that they will all quit after pop and reroll again.

Rizlona I think will go the long run. Aradune will be dead right after PoP.

Rizlona if you want to progress into live, however by SEEDS expansion everyone quits also, so expect to Transfer then.

Aradune people reroll with guilds, friends, feel of a fresh economy or try new classes from the start.

Most things after planes of power start shifting into a QUEST Mode type of game, Mini missions, Vendor currency tokens for items etc ( kinda like wow WOTLK/CATA )
Some people just love the game until PoP as they Remember the game they want to from Classic - POP

When Aradune first launches, boxes will be common - but not at all a majority. You'll probably have one in most groups, but the rest of the group will be non-boxed.

Over time, that statistic will slowly shift to more boxers and less players, until you're left with 3 guilds filled with 6 people boxing 12 chars each and calling it a "healthy, drama free raiding server" since you can't have a toxic community without any community.

Which will be the starting point for Riz.

Which of these two TLP will have better population will massively depend on "when" you look at either server.

It is painfully obvious to even a casual observer that Aradune has a lot more initial interest surrounding it than Rizlona has, it will start off extremely strongly.

Rizlona is harder to quantify since it is to all intents & purposes something that has not been done before. Rizlona's non-truebox is unlikely to be repeated much on future TLP so I think it will probably start much, much smaller than Aradune then slowly grow over time due to being unique & then decay more gradually than Aradune will & may even end up outlasting it in the long term.

While I think that Aradune will have a much, much larger starting population I also think its population will be hit far harder by any TLP that follow it due to how much more similar to Aradune they will be.

Aradune: Boom & bust!
Rizlona: slow climb up & slow climb down.

The boxing limit will kill Aradune eventually, but I doubt anyone really cares about Aradunes long term health. Most that roll on those kind of servers are in it for the first few expacs.

I don't believe Rizola will have better long term health than Aradune.

It looks like the majority of players are going to Aradune. The majority of people going to Rizola are running 3 boxes+.

The argument that "boxing = long term health" is two fold.
1) People can rep people as needed in raids with boxes
2) Once low level groups die out before mercs, it's easier for boxers to level new characters.

1 doesn't have nearly the effectiveness when most of the server already 3 boxes. How many subscription fees are you really gonna pay to keep your guild afloat? Plus, you won't be replacing one cleric. You'll be replacing a 3+ boxer. Every loss is gonna hurt more because your guild started as a box army.

2 is true but irrelevant. Very few people start on old TLP servers when a newer one is available.

Also, Aradune won't be limited to 2 boxes forever. They've already said GM support is going away at some point. At that point, boxing will be effectively legal (assuming they can figure out how to stop 3 boxers in the first place).

If you want a TLP with long-term prospects, launch one server with rizola's ruleset.

The GM support has not been determined to go away. It is on a trial basis right now of "6 months" If either server is a success and can support the extend support of the GM's it most likely will (since you have to fire someone basically). With that said, even if GM support leaves just because their will be no Gm support doesnt mean people are going to just decide to 4-6 box instead of two on Aradune. It is still a Truebox enabled server so people have to use multiple computers or a less then loved work around system. Most players aren't will to do all that when Rizlona being at the SAME point in progression will be 10x easier to box.

As someone who has boxed before on both servers, I would reroll 6 level 1 characters on Rizlona and go "catch-up" to a raiding guild then play 6 characters on Aradune with a frustrating system over multiple expansions.

The difference between both servers is drastic after PoP. Aradune if you want to catch up you have to work very hard or have friends help you. On Rizlona you can make a 3-6 box team that is faster/easier then Aradune or have a friend who drops a box to help catch you up.

My theory is Rizlona is gonna pull in people from live that are used to boxing on 1 pc and were just waiting for a boxing allowed server with AoC's.

Aradune is definitely going to have a higher pop at launch

That being said, I fully believe that Aradune will have a far more toxic community that Rizlona.

There will be bot armies on both servers at the beginning, there always are. Rizlona is the first full boxing TLP with AoC's though. That means guilds can still level and raid at their own pace and schedule. Epic bottlenecks, keying for VP, ST, and VT, etc are going to be a major pain no matter which server you choose.

Number of characters? Maybe Rizlona...number of players? Probably Aradune.

Rizlona will be the highest population based on bots/boxes. Highest populated server overall

Aradune will be the highest population based on players.

Both will suck. Aradune will have people remembering why they 6 box, eventually dying as the populationg rapidly decays. Rizlona will be more automated than a toy factory and a cancer unto itself.

Aradune will have the vast majority of the Cancel Culture mentality players, looking to shut others down just because. The GM's there will either have to be really good at what they do, or ignore a great many of the reports they get, otherwise the time investment required from the sheer number of reports they are definitely going to be receiving will be too large.

I think Aradune will have the biggest population by far for quite some time. I suspect that without the solo/duo players around, Rizlona is going to have problems with low numbers of zone picks in the beginning that lead to big fights over content that will be won by whoever has the bigger box group. Maybe I'm underestimating the number of people who really want a no limit box server, though. Time will tell.