Is it too late to start on Phinny or Agnarr?

It was the end of Kunark, a notoriously lull in gameplay for progression servers. There were few groups to be had in the general public, and few in the guild.

I was 65, when the cap was 70, so not horribly low. Not as low as this guy is going to be when he joins the server. So you want him to join, and then go out of his way to try to organize a bunch of strangers to PL him. I[m sure that will go over real well.

I didn't say, at 12 am, "hey anyone want to do some stuff", you are making assumptions that fit your narrative, without actually knowing anything about what actually happened. As for helping an ex-guildies. People are often more inclined to help someone they already know, rather than going out of their way for a stranger. New folks walk a fine line between being proactive and being needy/demanding.

I don't expect others to be responsible for my leveling. I did ask, and even attempt to make prior plans, to level (not for them to carry me, or hand me my levels) my druid with guild mates. Nothing ever panned out and I am not about to beg people who are uninterested in assisting. That just annoys people.

I don't recall ever saying it's "all sunshine and rainbows" but the vocal minority make it out on these forums to be far worse than it is. In fact, some of my predictions about Coirnav have been true, predictions that you specifically said would not be. Such as guilds joining the server after classic had passed, we have had a couple, including IVAS. Think of them what you will, but they are an established guild that joined the server late and has been successful.

The population is lower than Phinny, which I have never denied, but even if you apply Phinny's model to it it will still have a functioning population well into TSS. The population has stabilized, anyone who couldn't handle the exp left in the first 3 weeks. We have had far less attrition in Kunark that I saw on Agnarr or Phinny, probably because the VP key quest isn't nearly as bad, or perhaps because people just knew what to expect.

You don't play on Coirnav, yet claim to know the "truth" about it's population issues. The truth is that the population is still perfectly viable, the exp isn't really any worse than Phinny's was and the overwhelming majority of people playing on the server are enjoying themselves.

FYI I do offer to PL all our new recruits very openly, it’s the first thing I ask when I guild tag them, so no they wouldn’t be begging random people.

Also I know who you were the 2nd time now and you posted exactly zero messages on forums and discord asking for help or setting up groups. Your app was during end of DoN during week 5000 of anguish runs - if you’re not being proactive with setting things up that late into a raid period, then you won’t find groups then. All the main grouping happens during first month of expansions before people run out of non raid stuff to do.

Also your predictions were not true. Ivas was already setting up on coirnav and KL only moved with what ramnants were leftover after their guild folded (we absorbed a lot of KL into TBW). I believe they aren’t able to recruit enough to even clear all current content. There was no big guild and population boost on coirnav in kunark, nothing even close to what phinny experienced and there will be some major pop issues when next tlp launches along with the pop+Ldon decay hitting.

Do we really need to pull up the data and compare the number of full guilds that arrived on phinny vs coirnav during kunark? It’s not even close, especially when comparing actual guilds coming over that are able to recruit then clear current content.

I never said coirnav wont have a viable pop currently or that people won’t have fun there for now. They will have fun now, the server will experience serious pop issues later during the standard decay periods, and until then you’ll see almost no decay due to you being isolated in guild groups. These are just standard facts based on what always happens to pop for every tlp previously and coirnav will be hit harder due to having less population when the decay periods hit.

Whatever, you keep promoting Phinny and pointing out Coirnav's flaws and I'll keep promoting Coirnav and pointing out Phinny's flaws and we'll both keep playing the game we enjoy in the manner in which we enjoy it.

But your posts and predictions are half lies with provable data points being wrong in regards to pop and guild stats and I have never argued that coirnav isn’t viable for now.

Heck you’ve now claimed that using phinnys model coirnav will be running well in TSS? That’s not true at all. If you apply phinnys guild decay to coirnav it would mean you’d be running into serious lack of guilds to merge long before tss.

Don't bother arguing with coirnav kids, they will keep defending the dying server till the next tlp launches.

Phinny has lost half its guilds, assuming a 50% decay rate by TSS Coirnav is looking at roughly 6 raiding guilds (yes, we have more guilds doing stuff than is listed on the progression site). Pretty sure 6 guilds is more than RF and LJ have and they are both still chugging along nicely. 6 is more than Fippy and Vulak had at TSS. 6 Raiding guilds is probably more than any live server had when it reached TSS.

Fippy had 6 guilds at TSS. Citizen, Darkblood of Solusek Ro, Aim to Misbehave, Proficio, Obscure, Midnight Pyre. Only three of them made it to SoF though.

Phinny also had unlisted guilds. You can't just randomly say 12 guilds, just go by what is listed since phinny didn't list all their guilds either (but the unlisted ones disappeared anyway by TSS, such as House of Strix). Also, guilds that don't clear all content within era tend to die within 1-2 expansions as members start moving to other guilds due to them wanting to see all the raid content.

Guilds get eaten up bottom to top - notice how phinnys guilds are disappearing from casual to hardcore? The more non expansion clearing guilds you have, the faster things will decay as well.

You're being awfully generous with this 6 guilds by TSS number. The number would be closer to 2-3 guilds make it to TSS on Coirnav. And why are you comparing to ragefire/lockjaw? You realize those servers are non truebox and they survived by adding more boxes whenever members leave right? You guys going to buy more computers and all truebox 6 members to fill raids? And even with all of that their population has shrunk to fairly low levels of actual people playing.

If you want a more realistic idea of what your pop will look like, have a look at what machen posted in previous threads. And don't compare Coirnav to dead live servers and say "SEE we'll have more guilds than them!" because no one is looking at a low pop 3 guild server and thinking "wow what a healthy server, I should join!".
Let's be real. Your population is going to be hit really, really hard by the time you finish the 6 month Pop/ldon decay:

~5% attrition each expansion Classic-->OoW.
~10% attrition each expansion DoN-->PoR.
50% attrition when the next progression server hits. I'll be generous and say April 2019 for anniversary. Which will be absolutely horrible for Coirnav, as it will be right smack in the middle of PoP/LDoN. But earlier would be even worse.

8 guilds currently clearing content in Kunark
7.6 guilds in Velious
7.22 guilds in Luclin
6.86 guilds in PoP
3.43 guilds in April 2019 after the new server launches.
3.25 guilds in May 2019 LDON <-- At this point your server is for all practical purposes, dead.
3.09 guilds in Gates of Discord
2.94 guilds in OoW
2.65 guilds in DON
2.39 guilds in DODH
2.15 guilds in PoR
<2 guilds in TSS

in a nutshell, ^this

He said he tried it and didn't like it. It's pretty clear he isn't interested in Coirnav.

It's a snowballing thing too. As people think the server is dying the server will start dying faster, as guilds lose people they start to crumble further. Missing friends mean leaving players and so on. I honestly don't see Coirnav making it past OoW. There might be one guild that is still there a la LJ, but yeah.

I've got another method for estimating server population /pushes up glasses
Check the number of max level toons for popular classes on Magelo. Just like progress sites not everyone's on there, but it gives us another method to get relative estimates at least!

So let's try Monk since everyone likes that TLP Monk DPS:
Coirnav (60): 12
Agnarr (65): 14
Ragefire (70): 13
Lockjaw (70): 1 (wow)
Phinigel (75): 37

And now let's check Warriors since they're essential and have a Magelo-AC-leaderboard complex (Seriously, look at how many of these toons have the Aged Left Eye of Xygoz in mainhand it's hilarious).
Coirnav (60): 15
Agnarr (65): 27
Ragefire (70): 26
Lockjaw (70): 4 (wow)
Phinigel (75): 48

Gives a pretty good idea of populations that matches with what most folks have been saying here. You can also estimate attrition rates if you just include all 60 - max level toons! Obviously we can't do that with Coirnav yet. You can do this with other levels to estimate drop offs per expansion. With warriors again...

Agnarr (60+): 55 (51% loss since 60)
Ragefire (60+): 50 (48% loss since 60)
Lockjaw (60+): 10 (60% loss since 60)
Phinigel (60+): 155 (69% loss since 60)
Honestly I didn't expect those to all be so close!

You are all talking about expansions that are years away, I play on cornaiv and I and having a blast right now. But i know with certainty I wont be playing in 2 years. Its fun now, it'll be fun for at least another year. Thats all that matters.

I think the intent behind the numbers is good. But the sample size is way to small. When you look at all max level toons across the server you get the following.
Coirnav: 64
Agnarr: 70
Phinny: 318
Ragefire: 171
Lockjaw: 22

Oh, no you didn't!

Besides being the #1 wizard (Check his Magelo, wow) and #1 pvp'er on Phinigel (ask Myphats), Snomie also is #1 at forum quest. He has the best numbers. Believe me.

If you include non-premium to boost the sample size some more it's
Coirnav (60): 111
Agnarr (65): 166
Phinny (75): 423
Ragefire (70): 241
Lockjaw (70): 27 (wow!)

And if you look at % attrition since 60:
Agnarr (60): 401, 58.6% decrease since 60
Phinny (60): 1634, 74.1% decrease since 60
Ragefire (60): 592, 59.3% decrease since 60
Lockjaw (60): 154, 82.5% decrease since 60

Poor Lockjaw, man, they really should merge Ragefire/Lockjaw. I expect Coirnav to get a boost from Agnarr refugees, and maybe some from Phinny once we get into the higher level expacs, but if it follows the trend then Coirnav will be down to Lockjaw populations levels by the time it's where Phinny is now.