Pseudo Poll Results via Ragefire Spell List site..

For some reason, I am unable to edit my original post, so posting the current update..

Current updated results of 652 tallied votes....

• 01.7% voted no preference (+0.2% change since last update)
• 23.5% voted for ASAP (+0.1% change since last update)
• 25.2% voted for 3 months (+0.2% change since last update)
• 49.7% voted for 6 months (-0.4% change since last update)

While I am here at work until 5pm, going to update this every hour (updated: 11:20am CST 6/24/2015)

You really don't need to update it every hour, man. If people want to go to the site, then they will.

You are trying hard to sway votes. Everyone should vote exactly how they want, and not be swayed by flawed exit polls.

Okay here we go. I'll explain why I feel discounting them is doing yourself and others who read your posts a disservice.

Sample size only matters if the sample is relevant to the majority vote. Let's pretend we live in a medium sized town, and we're trying to poll our citizens to see if we should build a new skateboard park. Awesome! We're on the right track! But what happens if we selectively advertise who knows about this poll? What happens if we put all of our polling advertisements in a skateboarding supply shop? Doesn't matter if they get 5 customers or 50,000 customers. It's still going to invalidate the entire poll.

I'll happily take your bet, under two conditions. One, the percentages of difference stay within your margin of error. Second, you make it 100 Krono because I'd like to make some money off of you.

Fair warning, if you take my bet you'll see "Kunark ASAP" get about 50,000 votes tonight

While I agree with you I don't feel this particular post is about swaying votes. I think the guy is just generally interested in keeping people updated, and it's probably fun for him.

^^^
Hey, no skewing the results with your unfair no-IP restricted advantage

Im not trying to sway votes at all! I just find this whole poll thing interesting, and wanted to let people know, who may not have an general idea about how players may be voting, a way to get a somewhat idea of how its currently going.

Personally, I voted 3 months on one account, and then voted 6 months on my other account (I duo-box a 33 SK / 31 Druid)

So in other words, you will not take the bet because you know 100 Kronos is something 99% of players aren't willing to risk (or that 90% even have). I doubt you do. Regardless, it's an old tactic, well documented. Make the bet impossible for others to accept, thus win by default by not playing a game you will most likely lose. An old trick. In addition to Statistics, I am well versed in Game Theory.

No, in reality you will not take the bet because you know you would almost certainly lose, as this poll is almost certainly to fall within a 10% MOE at the time of the close of the actual vote. You claim to know a lot about polls and statistics. If so, then clearly you know this is likely to be the case. A 10% MOE is *massive*.

You simply didn't like my strong use of the word "guarantee" and am trying to make it blow up, and are therefore grasping at straws to point out how it could

Yes, it could. The "guarantee" could blow up.

It most likely won't.

Let's just wait and see if the final poll numbers fall within 10% MOE of the final vote (assuming DBG even releases the numbers), and circle back to this thread at that time, shall we?

I'll be the first to admit if my "guarantee" is off the mark. I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong. It doesn't happen often, but it certainly does happen. After all...Leaders are right. Often. But not all the time, and I fully admit and own up to it when I am.

We shall see...

I have 187 Krono atm and being honest with you I think you're being generous at saying 10% of us have that amount -- But I'm not trivializing your offer by saying I want 100 Krono. I'm trying to allow you to bow out without looking silly. This is for two reasons. One if you actually bet me 100 Krono I would demolish that guy's website (apparently my ethical standard is worth $1700 haha). Second, I was simply teasing you with that number. You needn't overthink such a gesture by whipping out Game Theory lol.

I'm not interested in one Krono but if you're willing to ante up a bit, and have it held on a third party so I know you won't just disappear off the face of the interwebs after losing, I'm still down. However if we're not talking a large sum of Krono, one of my conditions is the website's owner gives me the go-ahead to show you how wrong you are (at the cost of his poll being exploded into tiny bits). I doubt it will happen but I'm not opposed to asking!

I'm hardly grasping at straws. Even just the fact that one single entity (myself) is capable/willing to screw with the polls to get the result he/she wants, proves my point. Regardless if it's for trolling, personal gain (100 krono?) or simply to make people believe there's a majority where there isn't.

I'm just wondering how you arrived at the fact most 50's forgot about this website?

Perhaps you meant You feel that most level 50's forgot about this website?

This server population went from arguing about the results of a pull after it happens.
To arguing that a new poll should happen.
To arguing what the options of the poll actually mean.
To arguing the outcome of a poll before it happens.

Just give it a rest and wait/play the game in front of you.

I think it's a reasonable argument that once you stop needing to purchase spells, you stop referencing material that shows you where to purchase spells.

But yes, you're not wrong. It's an assumption. But I feel it sells itself.

There is also a very sizable group of players who know exactly where to get all their spells, or use other web sites (I can think of at least half a dozen) to figure out where they are and have never heard of this guy's website.

This makes no sense to me...

Basically there are 3 choices...

1. I want kunark as fast as you will give it to me.
2. I want kunark in exactly 3 months.
3. I want kunark in 6 months.

If 1+2 has 50.01% then there is no need for a "tie breaker". The people who voted for 1 will settle for 2, and the people who voted for 3 will also settle for 2 if the choice is between 1 and 2.... However no one who votes 3 will change to 1 or 1 change to 3.

The whole reason DBG put the 3 options up there was to make everyone feel like they compromised. Think about it... if DBG tells the 6 month players they are opening kunark tomorrow and the 6 month players delay it for 3 months they feel like they won. If the immediate player is told 6 months then gets 3 they feel like they won. It's all a mind game to make as many people as possible think they got half of what they wanted.

The actual poll is irrelevant. Excluding some sort of landslide in the poll where option 3 gets over 70%... It's going to open kunark in 3 moths and DBG is going to spoof whatever data they need to make it happen. DBG realizes at this point they will lose more players to lack of content than people who claim they will quit because they suddenly have more stuff to do in game....

This is how all "votes" are handled in the gaming world. You never really have a true "vote". You have the illusion of a vote designed to make you feel like you compromised and met the other players half way. Ultimately the data is always spoofed to allow the developers the freedom to do what they want and the "escape route" of saying "the players voted for it", when things turn badly.

Nope... if any option gets > 50% of the vote... no one can dispute that result. It is what happened in the first vote...

The only part is if the votes come in and are clearly up for grabs... 33% for each vote with no pref get 1%

What about 45% / 10% / 45% ... who wins there?
What about 30% / 30% / 40% ... ?
what about 40% / 30% / 30 % ... ?

The rule was simple... the option that gets the votes wins... it was not well if this vote gets more then the other combined, or well these guys want this so we add their votes to this and compromise...

Get ready to suck it up.. no matter which way the vote goes...

It's been mentioned already, but pretending like a sample size with a very targeted audience is reflective of an entire server is sorta interesting.

option #2 will most likely be where DBG goes .... this will not "rock the boat" as much and in their eyes keep everyone subbing..... personalyl dont understand why anyone is voting on this to begin with when the details have already been hammered out whether i agreed with them or not. i accepted 6 months as the way ti was going to be and planned accordingly....

I can get behind that it is a reasonable argument but you were making a point about using "guarantee and "I feel" then used the word "fact".

We will know the outcome of the vote soon enough or more precisely, We will see a post from DBG telling us what they say the outcome is.

I trust Holly more than some of the other previous leadership so I would hope we are getting the true poll results.