TDS Ultra rares in herocis is a myth (at least in this thulia HA)

It's probability... A coin has a one in two chance of landing on heads. If you flip the coin 1000 times and it lands on heads every time, both sides of the coin may be heads

That is completely wrong. What you just described is the gambler's fallacy and the cause of many people to lose a lot of money.

If the chance is 1 in 5000, its 1 in 5000 on every single kill. The individual kills have zero relevance for the chance of getting one on any other kill as you "kill/loot more".

If you plan to kill 50,000 mobs you have a real good chance of one of your future 50,000 to drop one. If you kill 25,000 without getting one you just had bad luck and you have no greater chance of getting one in your next 25,000 than you did before.

There is no "due to get one" or "have to win eventually". It's the same chance on every single kill.

Except the probability of getting heads 1000 times in a row is the same probability of any particular "random" distribution you get. Every combination has the exact same probability if you specify sequential results.

50% chance is one thing, cause you know, that can go either way

50% chance is a probability.

.02% chance is a whole other thing. It's very unlikely to happen. Try again...still very unlikely. It's POSSIBLE, but not probable on every try.

I wouldn't bet on someone killing 50,000 mobs in a heroic and not seeing a rare item if they do in fact drop in them. My guess is the ratio is way worse than 1/5000.

I don't think you understand when people say he should of seen one. No one says his chances are higher each kill. The likely hood of not seeing 1 item after 50k kills would be rare/bad luck it can happen.

The coin flip analogy is a good example but here's a better one. If I do /random 1 5000 in game 50k times do you think i would get every number as a result eventually ? I think I would but I could very well not it would be unlikely but could happen.

So you seen one 9 months ago Anyone got a more recent log of one dropping ?

throw around numbers and math all u like, the ancient cloak of flames also have a 1/5000 chance to drop and I gotten a few of those already, I have gotten cotf rares as well. But TDS rares in HA's NONE, ZERO NADA...

Having 2 people running the same HA with a total of 50k+ kills and not a single drop? Can it happen? Sure but is that statistically reasonable? No.

Now we have a guy that claims he looted a Privateer's Reinforced Spaulders and we even have the day and time he did so, it should be a 5 min check for any dev that has a minimum of SQL knowledge to go run a query on their lunchbreak...

Absor if you see this, PLEASE I beg you, go run the query.

I have to say they're suppose to drop in group missions also. Except how can they drop in some of them when the mobs in these missions drop NOTHING but plat. Go do the thulia progression group mission you will kill 40 ish mobs and not get 1 drop of any item no diamonds no tradeskill items nothing just plat. SO something is obviously broke here guys.

That was nearly a year ago. I have yet to meet or hear from anyone that can confirm the globals drop in HAs/missions for TDS. Everyone I *have* seen with those globals have all reported seeing them drop in the non-instanced versions of the zones. I'd think it's safe to say they do not drop in HAs. If they ever did, they were likely removed to tinker with the drop rate (like they did with cotf HAs) and was simply never put back in. Of course, I'm just a player. Getting someone to look at the database would be.... awesome

like i expected no comment. Despite the fact I've seen them comment on dozens of TLP threads in the last 24hrs.

Due to people who cheat, I would guess that EQ does not decide what loot can be found on a mob until it is dead. Otherwise cheaters would load up an instance, check the loot on each mob through the cheat program without killing it, and then drop it and get another instance until they got a mob with the loot.

This is just a guess because I don't cheat and I don't follow how it works other than random reading of some posts here.

The EQ client only gets what it needs to display the model, not a list of all the loot on a mob. Loot is 99% decided on spawn, but mobs only show weapons, and maybe visible armor pieces. If the mob has locked visible display items that aren't part of the model, those can prevent any loot items from being visible.

The 99% part is because they do have the ability to add loot when a mob dies, but it's very rarely used. The mobs that drop a number of quest items based on the quest steps of the group that gets the kill are a good example of that.

Humanoids might show the rare drop weapons, but a lot of them will have something else being forced into their melee display slots, so that might not even be true.

Most loot is determined on spawn, however I kind of recall someone with the authority to know saying that certain newer loots are determined on npc death. Would make sense that if such a method existed, they'd put the global chase items on the latter list Wouldn't even need to cheat, could just load up an HA with humanoid models and run through looking for odd wielded weapons

Either way, I'm pretty certain the globals are not dropping from HAs and certainly not from missions (for TDS, they were put back in for the CoTF HAs/missions a while back) and until someone reputable or a dev states otherwise, I'm not going to change my mind on the subject.

Rare items like these are decided on spawn it was posted sometime after cloaks were put in naggy. So while its a 1/5000 drop rate its more like a 1/5000 chance the npc spawns with the item.

I'm a 100% RA raider. Decided to take a year off and I've been grinding with alts in TDS - owning all namers and anything in between and have yet to see any TDS rares. This is daily, about 4-8 hours a day nonstop...7 days a week..some days longer. I am pretty sure the 1/5000 rate is way off. Probably more like 1/50,000 imo!

What DBCooper said. Quite awhile back I had 3 CotF rares drop for me in Neriak in a week or less. Shortly after the HA debacle. No luck though since in any of the static zones....

Right place right time...

You can definitely see this in action on many, many modern quests

Ultra Rare items wasnt really made to be farmed but something that you get when you are not expecting it. I only got one ultra rare since they came out and most likely would have missed it without the advl window. From CotF,Powar and TDS I probably hit in the 25k mobs killed if not up to 40k+

Brigand's Inscribed Shoulders. These rare, ultra rare? How much they worth? Had them drop few weeks ago when grinding a bit in Brothers Island hunting for purity augments.

ValBjork