Goblin Gamblin' Game - Mathematical Calculations

Jhaerel,
Yes, I do completely agree to your last post! I mean exactly what you said (only you said it better and in less words lol).
And yes I know you didn't flame, thats why I said thank you! :smileyvery-happy:
Im just glad we are the kind of people that can walk out of these forums like friends lol.

The math merely serves as a model. As we all know:

"All models are wrong, some are useful"

No one can predict what the odds of wining are to any degree of certainty. We can, however, fail to disprove any (or all) of the proposed models. All those quoting statistics should remember that you DO NOT prove a null hypothesis, you can only FAIL TO DISPROVE it.

The odds could be good, exact, or utterly wrong. Until they are proved wrong, they may be useful.

I would think that in-depth statistical analysis would have to include the level of jackpots won. By this I mean I could play 100 times, and match 1 number once. Compare that to the person that plays 100 times and matches 5 numbers once. Are they walking away with the same W-L ratio? Are they walking away with the same loot? Since (as I recall) the prizes are/were fixed based on the number of matches, I think it is statistically possible for the game to pay-out more than it took in. That's why, in a RL lotto, the prize amounts vary--they are intended to "pull money from the economy". They pull in a great deal of revenue for state economies.
It's definitely an interesting topic (geek alert). I will leave my philosophy:
As has been stated, "the only way to guarantee not losing is not to play". However, this philosophy also guarantees not winning.
I see gambling as entertainment. It's a little exciting, and the old slogan is true: "Hey, you never know..."

Look around--who has the money and builds the biggest buildings? Casinos and Insurance companies. Both of them are statistical games, and both have formulated the rules in their favor.

Regards,
StormCinder
Newbie, Lowbie, Fanboi

Are you kidding? First jackpot on Nektulos went over 800pp in less than a week!

Since...they roll between 20pp-80pp.

Being the general geek and poker nut that I am, I decided to do all the actual calculations for the odds of the Goblin lotto. In the interests of saving a little space, the numbers are rounded to 4 decimal places:

______________________________________________________________________________
Matches Combinations Probability Payout Expected Return
______________________________________________________________________________
0 593775 30.4845% 0s 0s
1 855036 43.8977% 0s 0s
2 411075 21.1047% 10s 2.11s
3 81200 4.1688% 50s 2.084s
4 6525 0.3350% 250s 0.837s
5 180 0.0092% 2500s 0.231s
6 1 0.0001% ???? ????
______________________________________________________________________________

The total number of possible combinations of 6 from 36 is 1947792.
The expected payout from the fixed-win prizes is 5.263s

Someone previously mentioned that exactly 3.7s from each bet goes into the jackpot pool. I have not verified this myself, but if that is the case, approximately 1s from each bet made goes into coin limbo (plus, if the jackpot resets when the server comes back up, much more coin disappears).

For the record, in order for any bet placed to have a break-even or better mathetmatical expectation, the jackpot must reach 922p, 59g, 20s.

All that being said, it's a lottery. Everyone knows they're playing against the odds. Play if you want to, and hope it's your lucky day!

One other post in this thread caught my eye:

That's the whole point of random. Each number has an equal chance of being chosen on every "spin". Over an infinite number of spins, each number will tend to be chosen about the same number of times. However, in a finite set (say, 9 chests), every outcome has an equal chance of taking place (that chance is 1/10077696, if you count winning the same number of chests in a different order as a separate result).

Which is to say, there was just as much chance for you to win 9 chests in a row, as there was for the following order of results: (1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3). If it were not possible for you to win 9 in a row, the system would in fact NOT be random.

Best i've had was 25 gold

1. Any serious mathemetician takes chaos theory into account. Yes, randomness itself can't be predicted within a microcosm. That doesn't make the exploration of a model useless. If you subscribe to that theory, you should never watch a weather report.

Coincidentally, chaos can, to an extent, be predicted, but I won't get into that here. There are many people far more intelligent than I who can better explain it, but if you're interested, do some reading.

2. I keep seeing people throwing up posts in this thread about the model authors positing that the game can be predicted. I haven't seen any posts in here suggesting that the Goblin game is predictable.

3. Thank you to the model authors for investing their time in a model that gives us a more concrete impression of just how skewed the house advantage is. I think most of us assumed it was a steep advantage, but 94% is pretty ferocious. Not exactly craps, eh?

With how popular Texas Hold-em has got lately, it would be really cool to see SOE implement a Poker Table where you can bet using EQ2 coin and the house has a rake of like 2%-5%

You've left out the massive number of players who have hit the 4/5/6 match jackpots and gotten no reward.

With the greatest repect, thats just rubbish. Every day they give us pearls, gold, armor and god knows what. There is a inifinite supply of this stuff. If they dont take plat out of the game everyone will eventually become very rich and nothing will have any value.
They are stealing your money to help you!

I think of all the things to upet at EQII for, the lottery system they devised is not one of them.

I went to the Massachusetts State Lottery Web page (link http://www.masslottery.com/Game_Odds.htm#BGOdds) and looked up the odds of winning "Mega Millions" (a multi-state game wherein you must match 5 out of 56 numbers and then 1 out of 46 numbers). The odds are a perposterous 1 in 175,711,536.

Here are some other calculations:
Match 6 out of 46: 1 in 9,366,819
Match 6 out of 42: 1 in 5,245,786
Match 5 out of 36: 1 in 324,632

The odds for Golblin Lottery is (accroding to others on this board): 1 in 1,947,792.

I think people are mad at math. The fact is lotteries -all lotteries -are designed with a specific function: take money from a large segment of people and redistribute it to an institution. Sometimes those people are called "Massachusetts Citizens" or "People who Frequent Las Vegas" or "Guardians, Wizards, and Rangers." Sometimes the institution is called "Massachusetts" or "The Mirage Hotel and Casino" or in the case of EQII, "oblivion" as the money is not actually going to anyone. Even the winner gets only a fraction of what is actually spent on the Goblin Lottery (as is true in the real world).

Is it a perfect match? No. If I got 9,366,819 people together for the game where you match just 6 out of 46 numbers, and got each one to buy a lottery ticket and each ticket had a different number, we would win. Period. We would cover all the bases (and in a lottery of $100 Million, we would each clear $10.67 before taxes; after taxes I think it comes down to $6.00. Then the price of the ticket you would each clear about $5.00 or less than one hour at a minimum wage job). If we got 1,947,792 people to each (at the exact same time- completely impossible, but go with me here) to play the Goblin Lottery, there is NO guarentee we would win (as we are all, in effect, playing the same number). There is also the payoff theory- I have NO IDEA what an EQII plat would be worth in the real world (and please believe me when I say I don't want to know).

(BTW- to try to win the actual Mega Millions jackpot with the 175,000,000+people, each buying a $1 ticket, you would end up losing around $.44 each as the winnings there would be about $.56 per person on a $100 Million javckpot. The good news is that your gambling losses- the $1 -would outstrip the winnings, so you would not be taxed on it. Yippie!)

But the purpose of each is the same- to take money out of the player's hands and put it into someone elses (or in EQII's case, to despose of it completely). And this is completely consistent with the purpose of the lottery. The fact is, its neccessary in EQII. When real world governments try to fight inflation, one of the most basic things to do is to raise prices on things. Well, if EQII did that people would be in an uproar. Other tools to fight inflation is to raise taxes (people will then, theoretically, spend less). EQII can't exactly do this. And could you IMAGINE the intensity of debate if EQII tried to implement an income tax? I mean, this could be its own thread! Would all crafters be Republicans? Another way to fight inflation is to actually remove the actual money from the flow of commerce or restrict the printing of currency.

EQII has opted for "voluntary taxation." Use of the mail- 10c tax; use of the broker board, a 21% tax; use of room and accomodations (varies according to space, but in essence a Graduated Income Tax)- anywhere from 5c to 60g per week. Travel to TS/Nek- 40s. These are all forms of taxation. The money does not actually GO anywhere (could you IMAGINE the huge bank account that guy by the Qeynos Harbor docks would have by now? On a single raid alone he would pull down close to 10g). The money is REMOVED from commerce. The money is not redistributed, or redirected. It goes away. Because EQII has NO other ability (save an epically hilarious income tax) to stave off economic ruin). And the lottery is a 100% COMPLETELY VOLUNTARY tax. Pay it or don't.

And I wholeheartedly agree that the lottery as it is (in EQII) is an inventive and (perish the thought) fun way of extracting money from the game which is needed to fight the game's inflation.
Message Edited by Rockroi on 02-10-200609:52 AM

I'm a wizard ; I never saw anything interesting being sold.
I head that ONCE there was a master ice comet and it has been sold 150 PPs... dunno if true or not.
Then I could spend my money on that stupid game, just to spend it and spend time also.
If, and only if, I could find it funny !

(Looks up at all the numbers above and frowns and is wondering why no is mentioning fashion?)

(Has her pet thwack a few undead and then thinks back to the numbers and gets a headache, so stops thinking and has her pet thwack a few more undead)

(Opens up the thread and reads all the calculations listed again confused and wonders instead if she should make a hair appointment)

(Decides to be smart also, so uses a calculator and discovers 1+1=2. She is pleased ) :womanhappy:

(Closes the thread and wonders what shoes she should wear out tonight?)

(Discusses thread with the gambling goblin, who looks as confused as she is...)

(Settles on red and black as her choice of colours for her night out and then compliments the gambling goblin on his tuxedo and how smart he looks in it...)

Gambling Goblin: "Smarty people need to have fun! To much headaches do they give themselves. The Half-Elf Conjuror nods in agreement as they join Cinderella and Prince Charming in the Royal Carriage and head off to the Queens Ball to drink, dance and make merry..) :womanwink:

* Silkwind-Runnyeye *

Suffering from...
[Signature-Clueless]

The jackpott on Splitpaw (EU) is just over 650 pp, and has never been won...almost time to spend a lot of cash on it

Well here is a few more ideas to throw into your mathematical calculations and predictions. It is concerning random intervals, repeat numbers and the outcome of the event itself. The first set is concerning the randomness of the game, I looked at computer coding for whats called a "Randomizer" statement. The way it does this is to times certain numbers aka our 1-35 top numbers by the digital clock readout "seeding the clock I think it is* and getting a result. That result is then turned into an "Int or integer" being no decimal points and reported back. Now here is what I am concerned with and that is the fact that the randomness could be done so by if a person achieves the sacred "lotto number" the game may run it through atleast 5 to 6 more times. This could produce the results we have seen so far with very little if any people winning the lotto. We have had 1 person win the lotto on Kithicor but it hasn't been won since and thus is at 800+ platinum right now.

Another factor to consider is does the game allow for repeatable number configurations. So far I have not seen it but haven't payed extra special attention to it. If repeat numbers are not allowed on your specific toon or your account this means every time you put in 10s you wittle your chances down to the point where you could win. However I find this very very unlikely and that the possible repeat numbers are reset so you will recieve repeat numbers when the server goes down and is cleared.

Now the final factor to consider is the outcome of each particular event. You can only win the lotto in one particular way however this way has multiple chances to happen unless I missread something. For an example will use 6, 35, 28, 7, 5, 10 as our lotto numbers. Now it has been a long long time since I have done calculations like this but if you take 3 numbers and arrange them in different particular orders you have 9 outcomes that can happen. We'll use the 1, 2, 3 scenario to demonstrate this example. you'll have 1, 2, 3; 1,3,2; 3,2,1; 3,1,2; 2,3,1; 2,1,3; as the possible 9 configurations. What i'm trying to say basically is we have 1 way of winning the lotto but more than 1 straight forward 6,35,28,7,5,10 way of getting it.

If someone would be kind enough to do the calculations for the red labled numbers we could have a pure idea of our chances. Also one thing that greatly concerns me is as this money stockpiles up people can become instant platiners overnight. Thus another thing that should be done is the "Dicator of Freeport" and the "Queen of Qeynos" should take atleast 10 to 20% out of the game *10 for freeport 10 for qeynos* calling it a tax and resident fee. This way it keeps a lid on the game so that when you win you get a good share but your not ungodly right like someone on my server could become. I can't even imagine someone with like 900+ plat. All people would instantly hike their prices up to 1 platinum killing the little guys hoping to get a share of the plat.

Despite all this hardwork, all your calculations are flawed. You did not take into account that these are the same people that have randomized group lotto so effectively.

Hmmm ... a goblin casino you say ... I do not trust the dealers working in those :smileyhappy:

hehe irony doesnt appear so well in text you ARE kidding, right? i still am convinced that soe's pseudo-random number generator is seriously flawed

on another note, has anyone pointed out that a computer generated random number cannot actually be random?... now i'm not much of a mathhead [though ive been told i have an affinity] but years ago when a friend and i were writing text-based comuter rpgs on my apple, it became apparent that neither of us could truly generate a random number event... over a large enough number set it became exeedingly obvious that there were patterns emerging... now while im not saying it became possible to predict upcoming numbers but we could definitely spot trends. granted, we were decided amateurs and a better educated mathematician would undoubtedly make a number that seemed far more random than ours.

another thing that caught my eye in this thread was mention from an earlier poster saying he recorded the spinning wheels and found that each wheel contained only a small set of numbers. if that is really the case [im not disagreeing with the posters findings, only suggesting that the graphics of the wheel may not be an accurate indicator of their PRNG in action] then the odds of winning are far worse than the almost 2000000:1 against!:smileysurprised:

whatever /shrug like many other people have said in many different ways, lottos are not all about beating the odds... its about taking a shot at a dream... it doesnt really matter what the odds are: playing the lotto is a good way to get rid of loose coppers/silvers and kill a couple mins while waiting for a friend. i'll still throw my money away every now and again... what the hell!

ps: i read in a book recently that lotteries were a system of making 1 wretch wealthy at the expense of teaming hordes of other wretches... a liitle cynical but true none-the-less :smileywink:

bleh, makes ya wanna cry.. this was on AB server.

http://p219.ezboard.com/farcanemastersfrm2.showMessage?topicID=156.topic