A Note from Kander

Bravo! This sums it up perfectly. I am hopeful they will provide a detailed response, but I am not holding my breath.

So...any word on Discord from the devs about if or when the mat level labels are going back onto mats?

Please make it so, devs!

I agree completely. I am beginning to think that the developers do NOT start beginning characters or tradeskillers. We need to know the level of harvests. Not all players or characters are at max. Please rethink this policy and return the level info to harvests.

thanks!

This is something we all agree on but it brings up something interesting too... if you do the dropped item quests, even beyond needing to, you still get an empyral crate every time (and you can repeat the quests every day). So the "grind" is a bit simpler and the number of crates is increased.

That would be fine and dandy if the RNG worked in a way that we expect it to work: same chance for all items in the crate, with a few items a bit more rare. But that's not how it is. The chance of getting something good is too small to encourage me. I'd rather compete for landscape nameds and hope for a red adorn. The chances are higher.

I honestly think that Dr. Arcana is bugged. I think he's lagging and when he lags, he just gives the same item to everyone because random / RNG type stuff tends to streak. Since that item is likely, a streak of those items is likely. That's an RNG that's too simple and the streaking isn't accounted for. Or accounting for the streaks would make him lag even more. There's usually 1.5 raids in there each person has to get the reward items, and be ported out individually. Then 35-40 people click him almost at once. And we can't go off and do something else and come back half hour later, because we only have 5 min to loot.

I've been doing the Recuso Tor PQ because I'm hoping there will be more to buy once reason finally gets through to the developers. There would be no point in giving some of those 195 items to some of my alts, even if they won the RNG, it wouldn't be helpful to them. That's why I end up doing the landscape named shuffle with everyone else. Honestly that part of it isn't un-fun, but it is mean. The one time I grouped with someone on that, they set their loot rules to master and I never even saw the loot. I never grouped for named again.

I've never liked the loot rules in EQ2, or I did, while I was playing solo, then when I started grouping, it wasn't so fun anymore. The reward crates were supposed to make sure that people got loot for their efforts, but someone had a bad idea and set them on "extra-stingy" so they're not doing the job and everyone's mad at the crates. They're not a bad idea though. They're just being used badly.

The crates were supposed to take the sting out of a grouping session where you didn't win anything you "Need" -ed on.

The appearance of "streaking" patterns with respect to independent random events is a cognitive illusion. If however, the devs have loaded the roll algorithm then the process is not really a random one.

It all boils down whether folks believe EQ2'S roll mechanics are honest ones, and since the process is a hidden, we'll never know.

The RNG mechanic may be steeply set (e.g. ultra rare chase loot) to make sure the expansion has objectives and/or appeal for 1 year (366 days). Whether that is agreeable is a different concern.

Additionally, Overseer is new and I can see the flip side (too liberal with loot) where people will argue that it has become obsolete after it has received much criticism as a candy dispenser (undermining gameplay).

Well for the benefit of the developers, this is what I think it is (for crates), there is RNG within categories like -- likely, less likely, rare, ultra rare... I think the most common result is the 150 Resolve gear and the Infusers, or there are more categories and if the lowest category is chosen then maybe only infusers are included. I do get a fair number of 150 Resolve items.

I think that in landscape named and solo instance named loot, lately I've noticed there are probably timers. If I get an xbox, I will NOT get one in the next solo, that hasn't happened in several years. But if I run 5-6 instances and take a few day's break and run 5-6 more, I may get an xbox on both occasions. I think the timers only work against you, but I can't be sure. I seem to be more lucky if I take a couple of day's break, and then do something again. Either a negative timer ran out, or a positive one was activated.

Harvesting, I don't get any rares (or gray body drops) until I've been in the same map for a while, a few minutes at least, no matter how good my harvesting skill is.I've noticed this effect for many years. I like the leather outfit dropped by level 1-9 mobs in The Nursery (GFay), and I have to really kill a lot of mobs before any items start dropping. Longer even for goblin parts around the pond. But once a type of loot is active, it stays that way as long as I don't zone or log out.

So I think there are timers, but I can't be sure what they are doing. One explanation might be, because shuffling is a resource expensive activity, it doesn't activate until after I've repeated the same thing a few times in the same map. And shuffling is thrown away if I've been offline for a specific period of time, and apparently when I zone. Of course, I'm guessing on the shuffling too.

Streaking is a mathematical fact if you're using a computer to create a random number. (link also explains shuffling) It used to annoy me that CS teachers kept asking for programing projects that were implementing casino games. Since I have no idea how to play craps, I had to learn it to be able to code it. The RNG streaking issue was one we had to implement using whatever algorithm we liked. So I learned something anyway. LOL Still not a fan of casinos though.

I don't expect them to tell us the algorithm or even hint at it. But I want more communication in general, so maybe they'll enjoy my guesses.

Streaking can absolutely happen in small sample sizes. I wasn't aware this was in debate. Computers sucking at random numbers just exacerbates this issue. Sure if you can open 1,000 loot crates, the results will probably match the odds, but what about 500? Or 100? Or 50?

Computers aren't good at random numbers. If I were making a game so heavily dependent upon RNG, I'd introduce rectifier code that tracks the results and if the outcomes are not matching up with the planned odds then after a time, the odds would be influenced to steer the results to match the expected outcomes.

I'm sure I'll get blasted for this "ridiculous" suggestion since "only pure RNG is fair", but the results of computer randomness are rarely fair. But don't take my word for it! Sid Meier and many other famous game developers put in systems of diminishing returns and monitoring of results and adjusting odds to create actual fairness. So the question shouldn't be why should EQ2 have such a system, but why NOT?


Of course my bigger suggestion would be, don't gatekeep everything behind slim RNG odds. Acquiring something with odds of less than 1/150 is not an "objective" you can plan for. You can't plot out a course for character improvement over the next weeks/months when everything is based on getting lucky on the dice. Some people will have every piece of gear they need in a month, others will still be missing pieces after 3 months.

some (pseudo)rngs have built in "fun" adjustments because its not fun losing all the time (losing means not getting something good)

i unfortunately think eq2s rng is tied to a character (or account) seed
im speculating here but i think all seeds are not created equal in eq2 so someone with a better quality seed will get more better stuff

but it may also be that just playing a lot is the key

The books and products (expert spells at least) are tradable. Skyfire server's broker is increasing with expert books and prices are lowering.

To put Darkpaw design into context (EQ1 as a comparison - being the same studio): Most players on EQ1 will only acquire zero or few pieces of Ice Encrusted chase loot. For EQ1 TS Sig line: people are grinding many thousands of mobs to evolve their BiS earring.

And honestly, this past's Summer's ethereal (Astral-Gloom) was hella grindy and this RNG design might benefit EQ2 in the longer term (way more resources will likely be available in a few months).

RNG based character development is a crutch used by the lazy and unimaginative. It's corner cutting at it's finest. Always has been, always will be. Having "chase items" locked behind RNG is fine as long as those items are just that, "chase" items. The issue is that the term, "chase item" has been diluted down to mean ANYTHING that improves your characters development. Character development should be something you can plan for and work towards, there should be several tiers of it, and it should be able to last a good length of time. That coupled with chase items, fluff items, and multi-part quest or accomplishment/achievement items are what gives an expansion longevity. Things that you can work on regularly even when you're finished with the main parts of the expac. Those items should hold some kind of longevity that carries over into the next expac, and further at times.

Even HQs accomplished this with the fact that you could turn the majority of them into house items. Gear that gives buffs that aren't tied to combat only. I still use my Hadden's earring, Shrunken Goblin Skull earring, various ports and escape clickies, etc.. Collections are also a good example of this, especially for the players that need "completion," same for Lore and Legend quests.

Crafting also plays a huge role in longevity. Consumables are just that consumable, you'll always need more. Expert level CA/spells will always be needed for alts even after mains are geared out. Actual gear, armor and weapons, might be the biggest. Decorating is its own animal most of the latest carpentry stuff is bland ish and lacks status reduction but we also have several tiers of very well done housing items that don't go out of style or become outdated due to a new expac.

There's a place for RNG but using it to create a pseudo sense of longevity is not that place.

If books and other material are plentiful in a few months, people will be praising this RNG design over a grind-heavy design. (The understanding that the devs need to make the expansion relevant for 365 days). Imagine if the devs implemented the Astral-Gloom type design where you receive currency (with a lock out) so buying a certain book or piece of armor would take weeks or months. People would may choose RNG (with tradability) over grind (with no tradability).

Edit: EQ2 suffers from a min-max culture; so yes, to many, grind may be preferable.

I mean, that's online games in general. There will always be people trying to squeeze every last bit of advantage they can out of whatever they're doing.

I do not mean to offend. It's just the resolve/potency calculations in EQ2 compounds the min-max issue.

I believe we are talking about different things. The presence of a streak vs. a tendency to streak.

For example, I could flip a coin 20 times and come up with 19 tails, but those outcomes do nothing to change the probability of the next toss; it's still 50% heads, 50% tails.

Saying there is a tendency to produce a string of outcomes imposes a violation on randomness. In other words, there must be some underlying process, that if known, could be used to predict or manipulate the outcome of the next event.

Now, if what you're saying is computer rng processes are biased toward streaking - that there is some mechanical process that creates these outcomes, then that is another thing altogether, and in that context, your remedy would make sense. For example, in order to be legal, a pool of slot machines would have to have such a algorithm in place to ensure minimum pay-outs.

I personally have not heard of computer biases with respect to generating random numbers being a significant problem, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist and I concede that I might be wrong and ignorant of the problem.

We share this concern. It is a relatively simple thing to manipulate loot outcomes with rng's.

A simplified example, assume we set a range of 1-500.
If rngv >= 6, then planar essence (99% prob of receiving a planar essence).
If rngv =1, then roll on expert book, etc (prob = .2% for an expert book to drop).

Added to this, eq2 is stacking 5 levels of conditional probabilities (with respect to expert recipe books):

First you have to get an eligible quest (rng)
Then you have to get the right chest to drop (rng)
Then you have to get the right bonus chest to drop (rng)
Then you have to get a book to drop (rng)
Then you have to have a roll on which book drops.

This is absurd, and how anyone thought this would fun for players is beyond puzzling.

Yeah, I've always been a little suspicious of eq2's rng mechanics myself - whether there was some hidden process that modified the rolls of certain players or under certain circumstances. Obviously it's pure speculation, but I've had some wtf moments of seemingly bizarre outcome patterns. Of course, might just be the luck.

I am inclined however, to consider it a plausible theory that eq2 may tweak loot probabilities up or down to accommodate shop sales/subs.

It's tiresome and in my opinion it is also purposefully manipulated to be so or we wouldn't have 3 tiers of Scholar books. Putting Adepts in a rare set of books and then experts in an even more rare set of books seems blatant.

This is speculation.

My understanding is that there is a loot table, and that it's weighted so that there is a low chance of winning the best items. The actual RNG is not the problem, but the weighting of the desirable items is off... they need to completely remove the outrageously stupid stuff (overland collectible items and common harvestable raws? REALLY?) and they need to reweight so that the likelihood of getting something decent isa bit higher.

As of 02/13/2020:

This is the composition of books for sale on Skyfire server's broker:

Shadow Sage Studies: 21 books for sale (Volume 11, 12, 13, 14)
Shadow Alchemist Studies: 36 books for sale (Volume 11, 12, 15, 16)
Ancient Empyral Teachings: 6 books for sale (Volume 3, 4, 5, 7, 8)