Many players support the ultra rares from the heritage crates. But we cannot make informed financial decisions without the drop rate. Is it 1/500, 1/1000, 1/1500, 1/2000? Can you please publish them. Some of us may be on the crux of getting them depending on what the drop rates are.
They've never published numbers in the past. I think it's highly unlikely they'll change that any time soon...
Each purchase / fail does not "increase" the chance of you getting it in the next one. Informed financial decisions? Don't gamble.
There is no way they are going to release the drop rate on the gambling mechanic micro transactions, not unless it is legally required (which has been rumored). I still expect people will be suprised at the sudden rise in young adults having to deal with gambling addiction in a few years, I wonder what the catalyst for that might be?
They are rare .. really rare. (this is stupid) You can buy them (last item excluded) for 7000 Jadeite Medaillions (this is stupid) You can buy them for 30 Kronos (or the 450.000 platin value which is stupid too) Some players spend hundeds od USD for this lottery (stupid too) Seems to be a great thing for frustrating players (cool)
We can do deductive reasoning. I have opened 1550 purple crates. (499/500)^1550=4.5%. Thus I can state with 95% confidence that the odds are not 1/500. 500 crates requires spending $607.14. I could just have bad luck. If the drop rate is 1/1000 then the odds of not winning is (999/1000)^1550=21.2%. If the drop rate is 1/1500, then the odds of not winning are (1499/1500)^1550=35.6%. If the drop rate is 1/2000, then the odds of not winning are (1999/2000)^1550=46%. No statement can be reliably made regarding these higher odds. But at a minimum, you must be willing to invest at least $600 assuming that the drop rate is 1/500. I believe the drop rate is much lower though. Assume that someone spent $8000 is true and this is a big if. Someone could have been BSing. Someone said this about the mount buff in another recent thread. But $85 gives you 70 crates or $1.21 per crate. 8000/1.21 = 6557 crates. Then (1999/2000)^6557=3.6%. You can state with 95% confidence that the drop rate is at least about 1/2000. But if you intend to buy 2000 crates, then know that your odds of NOT winning are about 37%. (1999/2000)^2000=36.7%. You would need to plan on buying more than 2000 crates or don't buy at all.
No, you can't because your data set is way too small to be drawing any real conclusions. You could open 4990 crates and get nothing then get 10 in a row which would fulfill 1/500. Likewise you could get what you want from a single crate but that would not make the odds 1/1. Either way, the numbers are pretty irrelevant as it's all gambling which is a fool's game. The verb you wanted back in your fourth paragraph was 'waste', not 'invest'.
Assume that the odds are 1/500. The odds of striking gold ten times in a row is (1/500)^10= 1x10^-27. Those odds are worse than winning the powerball grand prize three times in a row. (1/292,201,338)^3= 4 x 10^-26. Your reasoning is not sound. The guy who spent 8k on the mount buff had a good sample size to state with 95% confidence that the odds of winning were about 1/2000. Also many won the mount buff by spending much less. He was the outlier.
There's your main problem. And any particular outcome is as likely as any other outcome, that's why they call it gambling. As for the guy who spent 8k on this, he could use some serious help.
I got Micrus and Ergrott from the free crates way back, didn't pay a penny for those two. The odds are irrelevant. If it's not 1/1 then you could in theory open a crate every 10 seconds for the rest of your life and not get the chase item. Don't gamble, don't support this horrible type of RMT that's ruining the game and reducing everyone's enjoyment of it.
I think this is a bit of a stretch. Although my mother and one of my brothers doesn't play computer games, they like to gamble. On the other hand, I love playing MMOs, and while I do find the "gamble" of the crates to be a bit addicting, I still have ZERO interest in real world gambling. The real catalyst is dependent on the person winning big (subjective to expectations) and frequently during the first few years of learning how to gamble. I rarely won anything of note in the real world, so the risks were readily apparent. From that point of view, the fact that the odds of winning the best items in these crates being rare means that the number of gambling addicts being created from this game is not going to be any greater than in the real world, and may even deter a few should their luck be like mine.
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