TDS Off Raid 1 Tita's Ghost

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by Raynrace, Nov 15, 2014.

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  1. Drakang Augur

    No its not changed the Ledalus still hit fast and for 40K on defensive tanks.
  2. Axxius Augur

    We got back to this event after beating AM5, and it looked exactly the same as before. Ledalus hit hard all the time. Vitali can hit hard too, but less often (no, they are not capped at 8k, not even close).

    If ROI and others DA tanked an already nerfed event for weeks then it's hilarious, but either way Triton got the first legit win on it. And we never said that it somehow makes us the #1 guild overall - that's just somebody's insecurities talking.

    But claiming that the event was ninja nerfed between Sunday, Dec 7 and Tuesday, Dec 9 is stupid. We did the same version of the event.
  3. Hatsee Augur

    Beat event, find out it was nerfed, pretend that you are still awesome.

    I don't know what to think now.
  4. Silentchaos Augur

    Oh my god we're still talking about this
  5. Qulas Augur

    10 minutes!

  6. Axxius Augur

    DA the event for 7 weeks. Find out it went live already nerfed. Pretend that it didn't happen.

    I know exactly what to think: you never even tried without DA until we beat it.
  7. Snowman Augur

    41- 50 - 9 minutes to do loot and kill ghost with some more practice we should get all 7 events done in under 2 hours -- just 26 minutes to cut to hit this goal -- if only the raid leader could loot the chest and then hand it out after raids like on FV !
  8. Maeryn Augur

    If you had a tactic/exploit like having someone FD in each of the side rooms for Crystallos Broodmother then it would make some sense since the tactic/exploit is being used from the very start of every attempt.

    Instead you have a tactic/exploit which occurs after a guild attempts to beat Ghost "legit" and at the point they would otherwise fail use a tactic/exploit to allow the event to continue.

    If you had a timeline like:

    Oct 29 - RoI wins using DA
    Nov 3 - RoI wins using DA
    Nov 8 - RoI wins using DA
    Nov 9 - Triton wins "legit"
    Nov 10 - RoV wins "legit"

    It would be incredibly unlikely. On the wild and crazy assumption that RoI is on par with Triton and RoV there is no % chance of "legit" success which makes this at all likely.

    50% chance of a win - 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 3.1% chance of occurring
    75% chance of a win - 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.75 * 0.75 = less than 1% chance of occurring
    25% chance of a win - 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.25 * 0.25 = 2.6% chance of occurring

    Then you realize that the timeline has another month of RoI attempts and the only possible way this is more likely to occur than winning consecutive Powerball jackpots is if Triton and RoV are significantly more likely to beat the event "legit" than RoI.

    Now we don't want to base this off of past accomplishments, after all Triality had some pretty disappointing CotF results based on prior performance, so lets look at what RoI did during the time they were supposed to be failing to win Ghost "legit".

    Principal Quastori Numicia 2014-11-12 @ 18:07:37
    Principal Vicarum Nomia 2014-11-12 @ 18:41:00
    Principal Indagatrix Lucia 2014-11-12 @ 19:15:18

    So have either of Triton or RoV to this day beaten Arx3 and Arx4 in less than 1h 7m 41s combined? If you're cruising through these events much faster than RoI it still wouldn't make a lot of sense because of the lost month thing but putting RoI at 25% chance to win and Triton/RoV at 75% chance to win would raise the odds for 5 distinct events to occur (3 RoI fails, Triton and RoV succeed):

    0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = 23.7% chance of occurring

    So ignoring the missing month and basing this on Triton and RoV posting the screenshot to show how they win those events much faster than that guild RoI you would have a massive 1 in 4 chance of that sequence of events.

    Does Triton have the 6th "legit" win on Ghost? No evidence presented to suggest that RoI had 5 or fewer "legit" wins before Dec9 but it wouldn't be harder to believe than Oswald acted alone.

    Does Triton have the 1st "legit" win on Ghost? As likely as Axxius having a three-way with Beyonce and Kate Middleton after a Brooklyn Nets basketball game.
    Sathayorn likes this.
  9. Battleaxe Augur

    I don't know the answer to the above hypotheticals.

    I do know that a guild (not going to name them) Beta tested PoWar and recommended some tuning changes. They tried it once after release and their officers felt it was sufficiently overtuned that they took it off their target list. After Triton beat it, they put it back on their target list and went though the normal process of efforts and strategic adjustments until they too beat it. Iirc they were something like #4-#8 (I didn't care enough to note where they ended up). (Note, I'm not guessing about this. I'm relaying what I was told by a person in a position to know and who has no reason to make it up. The guild in question did nothing wrong except to throw up it's hands prematurely.).

    Did Triton decide something was doable when another usually ahead in the rankings guild decided the event was close enough to not be doable to put it aside? You betcha.

    Not that different from deciding a less gray area approach would not work and not trying it again until another guild showed the less gray area approach would in fact work.. There really isn't any other rational explanation for taking 2 hours to complete an event you could have done in less than 20 minutes.

    Now I know why he didn't want to go out and get a beer after that Nets game.

    (Btw, I personally don't think an early win vs. PoWar and an early less gray area win proved Triton was #2. Some disagree with me and I'm fine with that.

    However being the second guild to beat Cylix and Lanys does argue strongly that Triton is currently the #2 guild serverwide and its early win vs. PoWar and /cough "legit" win were in fact N O T flukes. The simplest answer is most often what actually happened - Occam's razor.)
  10. guado Augur

    Kiillz, Bryender and Smokn like this.
  11. Enkel Augur

    An early win against PoW would have been before they nerfed it into the ground.
    Savager and Iila like this.
  12. Kiillz Augur

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  13. Cicelee Augur

    I remember, several months ago, I received a 24 hour ban from these forums because I mentioned another player and his guild and used them as an example for a point I was trying to make.

    How this thread has continued for as long as it has, with as much verbal barbs between specific people of specific guilds, really is beyond my comprehension as a long time user of these boards. Not asking for anyone to be banned; I just compare what I did to what I have read in this thread and just say "Wow".
  14. Vlerg Augur

    simple cicelee, the mods are on Xmas break =)
  15. Battleaxe Augur

    If they "nerfed it into the ground" then a guild that I'm not going to name would not have required many attempts and days to beat it when they put it back on their target list. Since they fairly regularly have been ranked #2 serverwide until this expansion one would expect them to cut through it like a hot knife through butter - they didn't.

    It was adjusted after RoI's win? Perhaps. "They nerfed it into the ground" - not so.

    (Again, not conjecture on my part. Ar the end of day two's multiple attempts a member of the guild in question sent me a /tell asking me about a detail one would have to know before having any chance of winning. I couldn't talk about strategy and some days later that guild won.

    BTW - it was never a case of them putting progression first - they were well behind in the progression when PoWar was put back on their target list. The only thing that had changed was Triton had beaten it.)

    Ty for playing.

    Triton beating Cylic and Lanys and becoming the current #2 raid guild serverwide argues strongly that its early wins vs. PoWar and /cough "legit" win were not flukes and not due to the expansion being nerfed to the ground. Suggesting Triton prevailed over other guilds who were doing the same events at the same time as Triton because Triton enjoyed supernaturally lucky nerf timing is ludicrous. The most notorious troll on the entire interweb would be embarrassed to imply such nonsense.
  16. Maeryn Augur

    The events with the strongest correlation to future success. The order of Journey Home in particular has shown very little correlation to future success especially relative to the final progression raid in every previous expansion.

    Pre-Nerf Tower of Rot
    1. Realm of Insanity - 05/21/2014
    2. Machin Shin - 05/29/2014
    3. Shadows of Doom - 06/01/2014
    4. Crimson Tempest - 06/10/2014
    5. D'Pikeys - 06/16/2014
    6. Triton - 06/16/2014
    7. Inverse Logic - 06/22/2014
    8. Descendents - 06/24/2014
    9. Pain and Glory - 06/26/2014
    10. The Silent Minority - 06/29/2014
    11. Enceladus - 06/29/2014
    12. Ring of Valor - 06/30/2014
    Pre-TDS Plane of War
    1. Realm of Insanity - 06/23/2014
    2. Triton - 08/04/2014
    3. Shadows of Doom - 08/13/2014
    4. Inverse Logic - 08/24/2014
    5. Crimson Tempest - 09/07/2014
    6. Freelance - 09/12/2014
    7. Ring of Valor - 09/15/2014
    8. Machin Shin - 09/22/2014
    9. Silent Redemption - 09/29/2014
    10. Pain and Glory - 10/02/2014
    11. Descendents - 10/09/2014
    12. Sol Invictus - 10/13/2014
    13. The Silent Minority - 10/16/2014
    Sub 30min Tita's Ghost (arbitrary standard based on time limit for Arx1)
    1. Realm of Insanity - 10/29/2014 - fastest time 10min
    2. Triton - 12/09/2014 - fastest time 21min
    3. Ring of Valor - 12/10/2014 - fastest time 18m27s
    Principal Quastori Numicia
    1. Realm of Insanity - 11/12/2014
    2. Inverse Logic - 11/13/2014
    3. Triton - 11/14/2014
    4. Shadows of Doom - 11/16/2014
    5. Ring of Valor - 11/23/2014
    6. Machin Shin - 11/24/2014
    7. Silent Redemption - 12/02/2014
    8. Reckless Ascension - 12/09/2014
    9. *D'Pikeys - 12/14/2014
    10. Sol Invictus - 12/16/2014
    *Best guess, that FP update is really confusing but DKP page seems pretty clear

    Principal Vicarum Nomia
    1. Realm of Insanity - 11/12/2014
    2. Inverse Logic - 11/13/2014
    3. Triton - 11/16/2014
    4. Shadows of Doom - 11/17/2014
    5. Ring of Valor - 11/30/2014
    6. Crimson Tempest - 12/02/2014
    7. Descendents - 12/04/2014
    8. Machin Shin - 12/07/2014
    9. Township Rebellion - 12/08/2014
    10. Silent Redemption - 12/09/2014
    Principal Indagatrix Lucia
    1. Realm of Insanity - 11/12/2014
    2. Inverse Logic - 11/23/2014
    3. Triton - 11/25/2014
    4. Shadows of Doom - 11/30/2014
    5. Ring of Valor - 12/08/2014
    And then the event with forced correlation as it requires being on 3 of the above lists while all the above lists are independent.

    Calix Quirinus
    1. Realm of Insanity - 11/26/2014
    2. Triton - 12/17/2014
    So being 1st on every list in some cases by a large margin RoI is the #1 guild.

    Triton: 6, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2 - pretty strong case for #2, beat every non-RoI guild on at least 4 of 7 events

    Rest of likely Top 5 in some order being on 5-6 lists

    Inverse Logic: 7, 4, ?, 2, 2, 2, ?
    Shadows of Doom: 3, 3, ?, 4, 4, 4, ?
    Ring of Valor: 12, 7, 3, 5, 5, 5, ?

    Most likely 6-9 in some order being on 3-4 lists

    Machin Shin: 2, 8, ?, 6, 8, ?, ?
    Crimson Tempest: 4, 5, ?, ?, 6, ?, ?
    Descendents: 8, 11, ?, ?, 7, ?, ?
    Silent Redemption: No, 9, ?, 7, 10, ?, ?

    Most likely 10-17 in some order being on 1-2 lists

    *Pain and Glory: 9, 10, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?
    The Silent Minority: 10, 13, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?
    D'Pikeys: 5, No, ?, 9, ?, ?, ?
    Sol Invictus: No, 12, ?, 10, ?, ?, ?

    Reckless Ascension: No, No, ?, 8, ?, ?, ?
    Township Rebellion: No, No, ?, ?, 9, ?, ?
    Enceladus: 11, No, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?
    Freelance: No, 6, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?

    *DKP page shows wins but up to date recruitment post on these boards doesn't list those wins

    The further down you go the more subjective it becomes, P&G/TSM CotF success and likely TDS success vs RA/TR TDS success. Most likely 15+ of these 17 guilds will be among the first 20 to beat Calix Quirinus. It's certainly possible for a guild not listed to be among the first 10 to beat Calix, although flagging pretty much rules out much better than 10th.

    Getting loot from Defense, Vitio, PoWar, CotF Progression raids or even long Ghost wins doesn't show a strong correlation with future success. Beating those raids is certainly a good idea but it more so indicates how much time guilds choose to spend on those raids (other than Defense) than ability to defeat the most difficult raids.
  17. Qulas Augur

    The Plane of War raid was unquestionably nerfed into the ground. There is no denying this.
    Enkel likes this.
  18. Dueceduece Lorekeeper

  19. guado Augur

    There's obviously 2 (or more) definitions of "nerfed to the ground" going on here.

    Definition 1 aka Qulas Definition: Nerfed so hard, it was unbeatable before, and now we can face roll it.
    Definition 2 aka Battleaxe Definition: Nerfed so hard it was unbeatable before, and now a lot of guilds (but not everyone) can beat it.
  20. Repthor Augur

    this thread needs more photoshop
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