Fixed Internally Overseer Success Rate On Quest Page Not Always The Same Once Quest Started

Discussion in 'Resolved' started by Cragzop, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. Cragzop Cranky Wizard

    I've been doing enough with the Overseer system to notice that the failure rate for quests seems mathematically too high given the percentage I'm shown before accepting a quest.

    I think there may be a visual bug in on your Quests page.

    Setting up Fuel the Forge (Level 1 Common Harvesting) quest. Use a Harvester Wandering Greenblood (with Bonus Hardy) and a Merchant Dwarven Trinket Seller (Bonus Shrewd). Success rate reported at 94% so I of course accepted the task.

    Now I look at the Active Quest tab and that task … and it reports 81 percent success.

    That's a pretty big shift.

    I went back and looked at some of the other active quests on other accounts and they are reporting success numbers that are clearly lower than I accepted. But I think there's one higher as well.

    So something is either causing false numbers to appear on the Quest tab … or your internal calculations are wrong somewhere when the quest becomes active.

    If I notice any other examples, I will add to thread.
  2. Cloud the Third Augur

    And even at that alot of people posting they got much worst like 50% failure on 50 quest run. Currently mine is like 33% success rate on about 15 quest excluding ones that have 100% and are instant. Nowhere near the 85-91% it has been showing.
  3. Cragzop Cranky Wizard

    More data:

    Recruit Fighters (Level 1 Common Recruitment) quest
    Soldier Kelethin Guard (no matching bonus)
    Marauder Eldrich Wanderer (no matching bonus)
    Quest page display 86% success before click
    85% success on Active Quest page

    How was the Cauldron Made? (Level 1 Common Research) quest
    Scholar Kelethin Herbalist (no matching bonus)
    Soldier Equestrielle [Uncommon] (no matching bonus)
    Quest page display 87% success before click
    81% success on Active Quest page

    Dark Delivery (Level 1 Common Diplomacy) quest
    Diplomat Captain Silverwind (no matching bonus)
    Spy Orc Scoutmaster (no matching bonus)
    Quest page display 87% success before click
    85% success on Active Quest page
  4. Marshaik Apprentice

    The Success rate on Overseer is quiet horrible and very bad, once it says 80%+ all my quest had failed, how can a 80% fail, i can understand at 50% rate and i failed a 100% once somehow
    Lubianx likes this.
  5. Natal Augur

    Usually whenever you don't see results you expect when a percentage is involved the reason is because you have misunderstood exactly what the percentage refers to. There are a lot of cases like that in EQ.
  6. Lubianx Augur

    I was going to post the same thing. I haven't done much but so far of the 4 non tutorial ones I have done, all were between 84 & 94% success rate and all have failed
  7. Cloud the Third Augur

    Something has to be off.

    13 Completed Quest
    13 Success
    4 Failures
    1 Critical Failure

    First this can't be right??? why is there less completed then total different types? Guessing tutorial counted as success but not a completed quest? I don't know but looking at like a 50% failure rate if you remove tutorial ones.
  8. That0neguy Augur

    94 success / 26 fail. usually send my missions out with a 90% chance. And some of those success are conversion quests so its probably more like 75 success / 26 fail.
  9. That0neguy Augur

    So this is starting to get ridiculous. 103 success and 33 fail. When all of my missions go out at 85% or higher. most of them 90% or more.

    Speculation this is tied to the Finish now DBC skip. As people who let them finish normally seem to report higher % success. Not sure if that's true or not. But there is a problem that needs to be addressed. Especially when people are spending real $$ to use this feature.
  10. Skuz I am become Wrath, the Destroyer of Worlds.

    I think there may be something to that, every single one that I finished now with DBC failed and those all had 86-94% success rates showing.
    Vexana_Lanys likes this.
  11. yerm Augur

    I have been running 5x 12h or twice that 6h, and Finish Now the rest, to effectively "rush" all my extra missions and leave exactly enough left to pair with the mission reset timer. To date I have failed one mission that has lasted the duration. Given the success rates here tend to be high 80s to 90s for me, and about 2 dozen missions, I think this is reasonable to possibly good luck.

    Missions with a sub-100% which I choose to finish now have a success rate around 50-60% from what I can tell. Just now, I had 6 missions all high 90s % fail. This after all 5 queued missions I let run their 12h duration succeeded - low 80s average % there. This is easy to see using the stats tab, as I know all but 1 that went duration succeeded and all my conversions succeeded and my 28 failures - wildly disproportional to what the % says it should be - is LESS than almost anyone doing similar Finish Now strategies in my guild.

    If you do not want people to pay to win by using finish now you MUST put a notice that the success chance has been lowered when you click it. Hiding what appears to be the fact that this option torpedoes mission success chance is causing people to pay to lose.
    Nennius and That0neguy like this.
  12. Cragzop Cranky Wizard

    Earlier today on an account with 5 x 6h missions that finished on their own, I failed 4 of 5. All with success rates 84% and above.

    I'm not saying that paying to finish does not reduce the chances listed … I'm just giving a data point. You can still have horrible luck and not pay a cent.
    Yinla likes this.
  13. ArkAngelMithra New Member

    Twice I have failed 4 to 5 missions in row with 90+ success rate reported. It is off for sure.
  14. ArkAngelMithra New Member

    As a matter of fact I am doing now I failed 3 95% and a 97%. The odds on that are way off.
  15. dreamweaver Community Manager

    While we investigate a potential issue with how the Overseer system is calculating quest success rates we will be turning off the ability to finish a quest early using DBC. Please feel free to continue to use the Overseer system as we are keeping an eye on things and collecting live data as we research.
    eepok likes this.
  16. Trynal New Member

    can you let us spend money while you fix it if we want ? some progress is better than none
  17. Ibadan Kun'Tirel Augur

    I have only attempted quests with 90+ % success rates, and have failed 3 already. Some of which resulted in the lost of uncommon+ agents.
  18. Froger Journeyman

    this is good, maybe put a warning label on it so people know
    Nennius likes this.
  19. Boxen New Member

    Across 6 accounts, I have failed every recruitment quest but 1, numbering roughly 14 or so. Half of those quests I paid to complete early. Each quest have had a success rate of at least 69%.

    I also had an agent, Lyirae Oakwynd, who was coming off of a long incapacitate that appeared to be stuck in the status of clearing. I logged out and back in and she is now Banished for 12+ more hours.
  20. blackninja New Member

    It's EXTREMELY annoying not being able to being able to use "finish now" function.
    Rolling an Elite quest that will be rotated out in 10 hours when all of your Uncommon and Elite agents are tied up in a 20+ hour quest is not my idea of fun.

    If I choose to abandon the quest, i will not be able to attempt "Recruit Fighters" quest as it doesn't go back to quest tab when abandoned.