overseer elite probability is out of whack

Discussion in 'Bug Reports' started by mewkus, May 26, 2020.

  1. mewkus Augur

    According to allakhazam, there are 12 elite agents (13 if you count Fippy). If you have an equal chance of getting any one of them, that'd be 8.5% chance for each one. That means when you get your second elite, there's an 8.5% chance it will be a repeat.

    If you're unfortunate enough to get a repeat, odds are (or should be) that you wont get a threepeat. The odds of that happening are 0.7%. This is what happened to me. I got three Avatar of Tunares to start off my elites.

    I write that off as dumb luck and fortunately, the next two are new and different. Tonight I converted for my sixth elite and guess what....
    [IMG]
    Another frickin' Avatar of Tunare.

    It's not like these can be converted into something else upstream. That makes three elite agents that are totally worthless.

    There is something wrong with the RNG to be coming up with this. The system should have a mechanism in place to prevent this from happening, because this really takes the fun out of the game.
    Barton likes this.
  2. Atrocitas New Member

    I won't get in to the statistics end of your argument, but the quoted bit isn't accurate.

    Click on one of your "extra" Elites then click the Retire button.
  3. Jhenna_BB Proudly Prestigious Pointed Purveyor of Pincusions

    My first 4 Elites were not duplicates. Since then, I've had to retire the next 4 to get a fifth. It's frustrating to have to keep back pedaling. RNG is RNG as it were. It's all well within the math. That Murphy guy is a real bastard at times :)
  4. Mukkul Augur

    Since the May 20 patch I've gotten 9 different names from 15 rare-to-elite conversions (spread across 3 accounts). Which looks reasonably mixed to me. I can only guess you had a string of really bad luck.

    It might be possible that certain agents are intended to be more common than others. That would explain Fippy's apparent rarity, while Tunare and Firiona and D'Vinn show up readily.
  5. yepmetoo Abazzagorath

    Yeah, no reason to assume its not seeded random like everything else in eq. Some more common than others. Even seems that way for the common ones.

    But also, your chance of getting a third when you have two is no greater than your chance to get the first one originally.

    If you asked, what is the chance your NEXT 4 were X, then sure, you could do that, but the die once cast is cast, the odds of what happened to you are no different than anything else.
  6. Cacky Elder

    I'm up to 9 unique elites, and have retired many duplicates to get this far. Now I wish I had kept track of all of them from the beginning, so I could actually produce some statistics. But alas, I didn't, I can only go by memory, and unfortunately, "tons of dups" is hard to quantify in a meaningful way!
  7. kdor57 New Member

    I run 10 characters all at different stages of Overseer... from only 1 elite to 11.
    Until today, I have not ever received a duplicate elite on any of them. On the character with 11 elites, the first 10 were unique, then one dup, then another one i needed, then another dup. (these last 3 were today).
    I did rare conversion on 2 other chars today and did not get any dups (6 and 7 elites).

    Am I really that lucky? or is there something else going on? Until I saw this thread I had (incorrectly) assumed there was no-dup code for elites. /oops