Overseer Critical Success based on ???

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by HoodenShuklak, Aug 9, 2020.

  1. HoodenShuklak Augur

    Is a critical overseer success based on level, % chance success, or anything?

    Wondering how to optimize choices, or if I even should. As it is, I don't know why I hoard tetra's anyway...
  2. Skuz Augur

  3. OlavSkullcrusher Elder

    It's a mystery, for sure. All we can be certain about is that the displayed success chance isn't what actually determines success. The vast majority of the time, my displayed success chance is between 90% and 95%, yet the stats show that failure is so rare that my overall success rate is more like 99%.

    Skuz, I can't see the image you posted, what did I miss?
  4. Tatanka Augur

    My displayed success chance averages about 85% (I'll kick off anything over 75%). And I've had 5 failures in ~1000 quests. The first three came in the first couple of weeks, when I was running level 1 quests, and had few agents. The last two were over 2 months ago, and were from early-buying recovery quests which were about 90% success chance (later IDed as a known issue). So, basically, 3 failures in a 1000, with 75%-95% success chance.

    I run about a 20% critical success rate for quests, but I've never tracked what those starting success chance rates are. One would assume that the higher the success chance, the better the chance for a crit. But, that's just an assumption.

    @Olav: If you average 90-95% success chance, what's your rate of crit successes? I'd guess, higher than my 20% average.
  5. Sokki Augur

    From what I've seen, my best guess is it's approximately a 25% chance at getting a Crit, that goes for both Success and Failures. If you get a success you have a 25% chance of it being a Crit Success, if you get a failure you have a 25% chance of it being a Crit Failure. I've seen Crit Failures on 90%+ chances and Crit Success on 70% chances.

    I've heard people say the higher the chance the better chance at a Crit Success but from what I've seen the base chance doesn't seem to make a difference.
  6. Skuz Augur

  7. Cacky Elder

    This has changed over time. For a while I was running quests with only the bare minimum number of required agents and the resulting success rates were often ~55% to ~65%, and never failing.

    I can't remember if it was immediately after a patch that this changed, but it definitely changed. I failed 5/5 quests, and from that point on, the old minimum agents and who cares what your success chance is method was no longer viable.

    I'm not positive but I think prior to this there was also an adjustment made to the incapacitation rate, from rarely ever happening, to actually occurring at the advertised rate. In fact minutes ago, I had a 12 hour recruitment task with 100% success chance finish, it was a critical success, and 2 of the agents were incapacitated. Yuck.
  8. Andarriel Augur

    yea i have one account with 800 or so quest and only 1 failure what is sad the failure critical mind you was a quest at 98% i was excited it was done and was waiting for crit succ and it was all red crit failure who knows how the rng works. it also lame you can have a crit succ but lose a bunch of your agents should be if you get a crit suc you dont lose anything i think.

    Andarriel
  9. Captain Video Augur

    Do we know if the Luck stat factors into this formula or not? I can't find a dev post that says one way or the other.
  10. Skuz Augur

  11. cadres Augur

    Quests 1537
    Crit success 405
    There seems zero correlation between % chance of completing quest and the chance of getting a crit. Quests which are 99 or 100% likely to succeed seem to have the highest rates of incapacitation and no greater chance of a crit success
    I almost never start anything under 92% chance tho
  12. Captain Video Augur


    It's precisely because Luck preceded the development of the Overseer system that I would be somewhat surprised if they didn't use it. It's been factored into just about everything else in the game that's skill-related. The only test I could think of would be to run a bunch of Overseer tasks while not having any luck-stat gear equipped, and see if the %s change.
  13. Sokki Augur

    Seeing how Overseer is a separate system that's server based, I doubt individual Character Luck has any impact on it. I can log onto my main or a brand new 85 heroic and all the agents, quests and chances are identical. And seeing how quests complete even with no character logged in I highly doubt it knows to check the highest luck on characters on the server.

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