Denmark in lockdown (not EQ related)

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by IblisTheMage, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. IblisTheMage Augur

    Dear community,

    I just wanted to share a few bits of information with you.

    This is the best article I have seen on the Corona pandemic.

    I would urge that you share it in social media, and read it. It is quite long, but it explains really well the dynamics of contagion and containment.

    Denmark is in lockdown since yesterday evening, with only vital functions operating.

    We have 674 cases, no identified deaths so far.

    As you can read from the article, there is about a 1:30 ratio between diagnosed and true infected. so our identified cases translate to a probable 18.000 infected. We are holding our breath right now, to see if we locked down early enough.

    A month ago we where not taking Wuhan seriously, and thought they where overreacting.

    Now we are taking it very seriously.

    In a number of countries, the number of cases double every two days.

    In Italy, the triage situation is terrible. Doctors are choosing which patients to give life saving treatment. Their mortality rate is 4-5%. It is even worse in Iran.

    Countries that lock down early can keep mortality rate below 0,5%.

    Please read the article and share it on social media. It is quite long, but it makes it perfectly clear that the the only thing that determines how hard a country is hit, is how early they lock down.

    I am sorry to bring non-EQ stuff to this forum, but I think the circumstances merit it.

    Stay safe,
    Yruc, Sancus, Vexana_Lanys and 4 others like this.
  2. Maedhros High King

    Good luck!
    IblisTheMage likes this.
  3. Dawdle Augur

    I work in Asia and I have never known the Chinese to overreact to anything. Quite the contrary. There was at least 2 strains of the virus and if anything China downplayed the severity.

    I am kind of shocked by the approach western governments were taking. The truth is Korea is fighting very hard to stop the spread of the virus. Whats happening is horrible and the long term effect this will have on the economy is going to rough.
    IblisTheMage likes this.
  4. Nennius Curmudgeon

  5. Nennius Curmudgeon

    It would seem that one of the keys to this is to be smart and just not panic. Stock up on necessities and look out for each other. It will pass.
  6. svann Augur

    How would that affect the mortality rate? Id think it would have an affect on infection rate, but isnt mortality rate dependent on age and previous conditions?
  7. IblisTheMage Augur

    It explains it much better in the article, but the only way to stop the infection rate is to lock down.

    About 14% of infected need hospitalization, and about 4-5% need intensive care. No health system has capacity for the 14%+4%, if the number of infected is too high.

    (The infection rate is exponential, which is not intuitive for all what it means: it means that one can infect several, who again infect several, so that the number of infected keep abccellerating, with no upper boundary of how fast it goes.)

    If you have 10x or 100x the number of people that needs hospitalization or intensive care, compared to hospital beds, then most people will not get it. It could for example be intubation of a patient that needs oxygen.

    This article has some explanations of how the situation is in Italy right now.

    The 14% + 4% are typically people that are older or have previous conditions, but definitely not all. Their mortality rate is based on whether they can be treated. Also, treatment is important for some of the ones that survive, in some cases Corona leaves scar tissue in the lunges that appear to be chronic
  8. IblisTheMage Augur

    Same to you. I am worried for the US.
    Elyssanda likes this.
  9. FawnTemplar Augur

    What happens is this: when a country doesn't lock down then the virus is allowed to spread and this virus spreads at a very rapid rate, some countries are seeing an exponential growth rate right now, including the US. Health care systems are only able to treat so many people so if the virus is allowed to spread to a large amount of people then the health care system becomes overwhelmed by the number of patients. With the coronavirus, about 1% of those infected will require treatment in the ICU with a ventilator or EMCO machine. Those machines are a very limited resource. A couple years ago the US had only about 250 of them (which is shocking). Thus, the more a virus spreads the more taxation there is on limited resources which results in higher death tolls. Doctors end up making calls about who receives life saving measures and who doesn't.
    Tucoh likes this.
  10. IblisTheMage Augur

    According to the article I linked, it is about 14% that require hospitalization, and about 4% that require ICU.
    FawnTemplar likes this.
  11. Nennius Curmudgeon

    From now on if something goes "viral", will that still be a good thing?
    Sowslow likes this.
  12. FawnTemplar Augur

    Sorry I meant 1% will need the machines I mentioned. Your right though its ~4.7% need the ICU.
    IblisTheMage likes this.
  13. OldCa61 Augur

    They closed Disneyland and Disneyworld. They are stopping any event with more than 50 people. Schools are already closing. My Sheriff won't be doing any fingerprinting or Livescans due to fear of catching this. Hope everyone stays safe and sound. The financial cost of this is astronomical. People who have kids who can't go to school have to pay someone to watch them or many have been told to work from home. Blessings and Good Health to you all and your families :)
  14. smash Augur

    You forget a part, that friday there were 90 and a bunch of people came back from the alps, 139 persons and 118 were infected. And that caused the massive increase.

    The so called experts underestimated in and they really should be fired.

    Now where I work, people is split into 2, half works from home, rest from work.
  15. Herf Augur

    Resident Evil T Virus. C virus. Coincidence? You decide.
  16. IblisTheMage Augur

    My best friend is a mid level manager in Sundhedsstyrelsen, the danish CDC, and my wife is a medical doctor and PhD, she knows the infection specialists that are driving the decisions and policies. My friend has been working around the clock with no weekends for a number of weeks, and the infection specialists are the best we have. Your anger is understandable, but emotions will not get us through this, only rational cold thought and action.

    The reality is that only countries that where hit by Sars 18 years ago have an adequate response. Unfortunately human beings are really bad at learning from each other across national boundaries, at least when it comes to these scale of events.

    It is a small miracle that we have no identified fatalities yet, unfortunately it is only a question of time.

    Again, I urge people to read the article in the first post.
    Coagagin likes this.
  17. Aegir Augur

    Working Part-Time in the Sundhedssektor in Denmark. My other job was playing Drums, but that biz is basically dead at the moment. So I'm now full-time, since I don't have kids, and the single-moms etc. are in deep trouble keeping up with their work schedule. So I've basically isolated myself and only go to work and hope I don't get infected - or put in quarantine.

    I'm not afraid of getting the Virus, I just don't want it to happen while the healthcare system is so fragile at the moment.

    All the best to all EverQuest players out there! :)
    Coagagin and IblisTheMage like this.
  18. Zvenn Just an old monk

    With it being Friday the 13th are they also locking down Camp Crystal Lake?!? All this time they finally found a way to stop Jason Voorhees
  19. Mintalie Augur

    Thank you, I am sharing this.
    IblisTheMage likes this.
  20. Waitwhat Elder

    Vumad and Herf like this.