Breaking the curve (not EQ related)

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by IblisTheMage, Apr 2, 2020.

  1. IblisTheMage Augur

    For the third day in a row, the number of hospitalized Corona patients have gone down in Denmark.

    I got emotional when I saw it the first day, because until then, the curve had been climibing every day.

    The number of dead pr day is still going up, and will do so for a period of time, because of the delay between hospitalization and death.

    So the lockdown is working.

    Our prime minister communicated that the lockdown may be partially lifted after a week or two more.

    Unfortunately, this was taken by Some as a sign to slack, and some people started non-distancing behaviour.

    This is very unfortunate, and will prolong lockdown and losses, both in lives and economic. But humans are humans, some need to experience actual death close to themselves before listening to reason... Because we locked down so early, we have not been hit hard.

    Just spreading the word: until we have a vaccine, we need to be fighting that “R0”.

    R0 is the number of people an infected person will infect during their infectious period.

    Lockdown, hand wash, massive testing and quaranteening, etc etc all work on lowering R0.

    R0 for the flu is 1,3, so each infected will in average infect 1,3 people.

    For Corona, it is 2,6.

    The flu has an estimated infected mortality rate of 0,1%

    The estimated infected mortality rate for Corona is around 1%. This assumes modern treatment is available, or this rate is much higher.

    So 2x on how infectious it is compared to flu, and 10x the mortality rate (if intensive care is abundant).

    So about 20x as lethal.

    When we fight the virus with measures that lowers contagion, like lockdown, self-quaranteening, mouth scarves, etc etc, we modify the R0.

    If R0 goes below 1 (and stays there), the disease begins to shrink, until the last person is no longer infectious: this takes a number of infection cycles. If you have 1000 infected, and R0 is 0,9, then you will have 900 after one infection cycle, 810 after two, etc etc.

    However, if the R0 is much lower, the number of infected goes down much faster. Example, if it is 0,5 the numbers look like this: 1000 —> 500 —> 250 etc.

    This is the reason it is so important to stay vigilant and smart, until everybody has been vaccinated. We can steer around aa long long disease ramp down, if almost everybody keeps up the discioline, even after the numbers start to improve.
    Jhenna_BB, code-zero, Prathun and 3 others like this.
  2. Xyphen Maximum Augur

    Just for clarification for the American crowd, R0 is expressed as a decimal (CV R0 is 2.6 and flu R0 is 1.3). Commas represent ranges or digit separation in these here parts.

    I agree with the sentiment, though.
    IblisTheMage likes this.
  3. Skuz I am become Wrath, the Destroyer of Worlds.

    The big problems are economic damage & post-lockdown spiking, many countries may well have to have a succession of lockdowns to manage the ability of their health services to effectively cope & not be overwhelmed.

    Testing & tracing is the key to a long term exit strategy, that was shown by how South Korea operated.

    The big worry is how long term the protection from re-infection recovery from the virus provides, if it's like influenza & the protection from infection/recovery or from any vaccines is only partial or a low immune response that fades rapidly then we could be set for a new seasonal illness but one much nastier than the flu which we have grown accustomed to & to be honest globally societies do not take even mild flu seriously enough as even this still does kill thousands every year.
    IblisTheMage likes this.
  4. Jeebs New Member

    Actual correct and pertinent information, which is a rare sight during this craziness. Bravo.
    Elyssanda likes this.
  5. Jumbur Improved Familiar

    Otoh, I have read that the common flu is pretty much absent this time, because of the "almost" global social distancing.
    Question: can the common flu "survive" this? Maybe this could help us getting rid of flu once and for all? Can a virus die for real?

    Probably a stupid question...
  6. Skuz I am become Wrath, the Destroyer of Worlds.

    Influenza has a very rapid mutation rate & the human body only mounts a fairly weak immune response to it which does tend to fade quickly due to that rapid mutation of the virus, so the common flu will very likely survive the social distancing measures most countries have in place. The good thing about the medical advice is that influenza virus does not last long outside of the host, only a few hours, so provided the hand-washing & not touching your face advice is strictly followed the flu virus could also be severely reduced, wiped out is still unlikely though, it has adapted very well to surviving in humans.
    IblisTheMage and Jumbur like this.
  7. Jumbur Improved Familiar

    Too bad though, one would think the concept of virus was very dependent on specific behavior from the hosts, and could therefore be "starved to dead" on a global scale, if that behavior was removed. I bet a simpel thing like teaching everyone to wash hands completely terminated a lot of diseases/vira for good.

    How could common flu deal with global social distancing/good hygiene for a prolonged period? It needs a host, but it can't survive for long on the same host and need to move all the time? Can it mutate into being able to survive on the same host for a prolonged period?
  8. Nennius Curmudgeon

  9. CatsPaws Devil's Advocate

    They just released reports that the number of flu cases is down this time of year from recent years.
    Skuz and Jumbur like this.
  10. Aurastrider Augur

    I am happy to see the EQ community take this seriously. Thanks to everyone who is trying to stop the spread of the virus from a fellow EQ player (although I have been MIA) and RN who has seen those infected up close. Its nasty and very serious. EQ is the perfect way to pass the time. Be safe everyone.
    Corwyhn Lionheart, Jumbur and Skuz like this.
  11. Jumbur Improved Familiar

    Regarding Denmark, there are concerns that the efficiency of the safety measures is almost "too good", regarding social distancing, hygiene, lockdowns, etc... that we will never achieve herd-immunity if we keep going the way we are. We don't want to "flatten the curve" too early either, as that will just delay the problem for too long.

    At least it hasn't run wild in Denmark. Our hospitals can still handle it, if we do everything right and stay in control.

    The plan is to gradually ease up on the lockdown starting in 2 weeks.

    My guess is this is going to be a looong and hopefully not too "bumpy" road back to normalcy. Keeping it controlled, when every little change has a 14 day-delay before the results show, is going to be a nightmare...:(
  12. Skuz I am become Wrath, the Destroyer of Worlds.

    Once a vaccine is available the situation gets drastically easier, until that happens almost every country will need to relax & re-tighten restrictions to manage the hospital workload while the fittest & strongest are gradually exposed & the most vulnerable are protected, it's going to be a fairly long & heavily managed process where we all steadily return to normality over months.
    IblisTheMage and Jumbur like this.
  13. Jumbur Improved Familiar

    Vaccines usually takes 12-18? months to get tested/approved(i think), it might help with a possible "next wave". But I doubt it will be an option in the immediate future. One can hope though...
    Nennius and Skuz like this.
  14. Nennius Curmudgeon

    Jumbur likes this.
  15. Herf Augur

    I was at the grocery store today in California. People are getting way to comfortable with this new normal, and are now moving closer to each other than they should be, or than they were even two days ago. I expect we'll see a new peak in the graph at this rate. Idiots.
    IblisTheMage and Nennius like this.
  16. Nennius Curmudgeon

    Quite true. On the other hand, I was in a grocery store yesterday in San Diego County that had toilet paper sitting on the shelf. Not much, but it hadn't vanished nearly instantly. Possibly an anomalous event. I am (puts on his nearly unused optimist hat) hopeful that panic buying will ease.

    It is human nature to relax certain precautions when an event has not happened to the individual involved or to a close acquaintance. It is too soon to relax on keeping a safer distance. Perhaps in June.
  17. svann Augur

    That timeline though is for non-emergencies. It can be expedited.
  18. Jumbur Improved Familiar

    Nennius' article makes it sound like the 12-18 months figure was as quickly and streamlined as it can be without being reckless.
    Of course you can choose to be reckless/desperate and just feed the "early candidates" of the vaccine to the public directly before the testing, but that is a very risky move imo. Giving the entire population some untested vaccine that could have severe long term side effects, just to save 1%-5% of the population?
    Im not an anti-vaxxer at all, but that is because I know stuff like this is tested thoroughly.

    We don't want a repeat of something like the Thalidomide scandal (poorly tested medicine, that caused birth-defects when used on pregnant women) :eek:
    Nennius' article also links to "vaccine enhancement", which is something that takes time to test for.

    I don't have a medical education, so im not sure how much it can be expedited...or what the risks are, but proper testing/validation does take time. There are some corners you don't want to cut.
  19. Hekaton Augur

    Log into general chat on the rathe server if you want to see the booger eaters that are calling this pandemic a nothing sandwich or a hoax.

    I work in management in a large chain pharmacy in california that is still a little slow in providing adequate protection for our workers. It's getting there but not nearly fast enough. The amount of foot traffic we get is pretty high and the people that drive me nuts are the ones that thank me for being there while buying non-essential items. (a box of granola bars) I'm putting my life at risk everyday when i clock in at work.
  20. blood & gufts Augur

    You cannot however use those numbers for anything and the only purpose on the speech from her was to keep hope up.
    Now however it has been done, she is very likely to blame for increased number of infected, because people already show sign of what they shall not do: Do not crowd together, keep distance and such.