Arcane Fusion changes

Discussion in 'Casters' started by kizant, Sep 13, 2019.

  1. kizant Augur

    I've had some questions about my posts in the Test patch thread. Figured I'd cover a little more of where my raid numbers come from. I've got some more data. Below I've combined 8 weeks of tbl/gmm raids and if you look at how much Arcane Fusion contributes to Wizard damage you can see it comes to 0.74%. Here's where it stands compared to other things I'm defining as a 'proc'. Keep in mind that some spells here have multiple versions listed. So, add NET II and NET III together. I use the group one on myself when I have to. And we don't always have a bard so those bard procs would be a bit higher.


    Now, if you just go by the numbers. The changes on Test would make Arcane Fusion crit 100% of the time but it will only proc 30% as often as it does now. The expected number of procs is simple enough. 30% of 315 is 94.5.

    Then how much damage would each one do if they all crit? You have to consider that lucky hits happen 1/2 as often as crits and since 100% are crits we can just take an average. I have the average lucky and average crit data in the picture about. The average of the two would be 1,423,855.

    The total damage for the upgraded Arcane Fusion would then come to 134,554,297 instead of the 122,068,806 listed above. If you add that difference into the total damage and re-calculate the percentage you come to a new value for Arcane Fusion. It will do 0.81% of my total damage instead of 0.74%.

    The point I tried to make in the patch thread is that the critical damage is highly dependent on ADPS. You need 2nd spire, IOG, FE, glyph, etc all going to see Arcane Fusion hits over 2 million. And because the new proc rate is so low there is a smaller chance that a proc will happen while you have good ADPS. So, I'm expecting the real increase to be less than this. Maybe around 0.79% at best.

    At the end of the day, it sounded like a significant boost, but it'll still do less damage than my underfoot range proc. Now, if it is upgraded to 250k base damage next expansion it may actually be competition for the underfoot aug.

    Actually here we go, it only takes a second. If it were increased to 250k and everything else stayed the same it'll have a total of near 168 million and if increased to 300k damage it would be near 201 million. It might get near the TDS ice aug. Even if they increased it to 350k damage it wouldn't go over 235 million and barely hit 1.5% of our DPS. There's definitely room for upgrades here imo.
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  2. kizant Augur

    Looks like there's an update on this. Dzarn just made a new post about the proc rate:

    So.... If we look at the spell counts for what can trigger Arcane Fusion based on cast time we end up with about 5500 casts for the data I have above.

    Combined (2168): Rustbottom, Grinder of Gears in 46602s

    Kizant - 5501
    --- Claw of Qunard - 2466
    --- Dissident Fire - 401
    --- Ethereal Icefloe - 10
    --- Ethereal Skyblaze - 518
    --- Ethereal Skyfire - 2106

    Then if you take 3% of that it gives us around 165 Arcane Fusion procs instead of the 94.5 I had been working with previously. The 134,554,297 damage increases to 234,936,075 and the overall percentage increases from 0.74% to 1.4% so about double what it is today. That is a pretty good improvement.

    Also, I could probably look at during a burn separately. I could see Arcane Fusion possibly doing 3x as much during a burn than it currently is now. Still looking at that.
  3. kizant Augur

    Actually, Sancus pointed out that I should have based those above numbers on 'hits' and not spell casts. Which is true and a bit more of a pain to do. But for a quick estimate if what above is true and my Direct Damage twincast rate is around 60% then we probably have to increase these numbers by that much as well.

    Ballpark we could be looking at 1.8% of total damage instead of 1.4% which means new Arcane Fusion could be around 2.4x as good as the old one and on a burn we could even see as much as 4x as much damage from it than previously. I think that's a fair quick guess.Have to look at that more.
  4. kizant Augur

    So, today after going through hit counts I ended with around 9690 counting Ethereals, Dissident, Claw, the odd Pillar, etc. Then 3% of that number is about 290. And 290 x 1,423,855 = 412,917,950. Which is pretty close to what we get out of Dragonmagic procs.

    IMO any change where overall damage increases by 1% or more is significant. This one we may be looking at close to a 1.7% improvement. Also, given how upgrades typically go I imagine it'll beat the new version of dragonmagic in the next expansion. If they want to make it compete with say Frostreave it wouldn't take all that much of an improvement. Somewhere between 250k and 300k base damage would do it.

    Also, remember if you want to use my numbers in the first post that you have to factor in things like time differences. For example, I didn't always have a druid but 99.5% of the time I should have dragonmagic. If I were to estimate how much Frostreave really could do I'd add about 12% to my total based on the time difference between it and dragonamgic. As one example.

    Obviously, everything I've been posting is just an estimate and is probably off by a little.
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  5. Derka Augur

    Great posts as usual, I enjoy the read.
    kizant likes this.
  6. Travestii Elder

    Thank you for sharing the analysis Kizant.
    kizant likes this.
  7. kizant Augur

    So, I've finally had a chance to really try the changes on Live, since it was only partially updated on Text, and I've been away all week. It looks like SPA 339 only works on the initial spell cast and not each 'hit'. We are BACK to this:

    It's a decent upgrade but only about double what the old version did. It won't be too noticeable, I was really hoping it would be closer to Dragonmagic but that's not going to happen with this change. Hopefully, next expansion it's upgraded to 300k base damage or something.
  8. Renotaki Elder

    Overall, it seems like a really minor change that's not going to change anything significant for overall dps. I do like the change in principal because having a low proc rate ability that's supposed to be something amazing like causing a fusion reaction with your spells be capped at a woeful 15% crit rate just seemed wrong. At least for flavor reasons, I like the change. I'm hoping we will see some other more impactful changes to address our current class issues next expansion too.
  9. Sancus Augur

    I'll be running longer parses at some point today, but my guess is, if Twincasts aren't proccing Arcane Fusion, it's due to the inclusion of SPA 497. Plenty of SPA 339 abilities do proc twice on a Twincast (MR, FW, Evoker's Synergy, etc.). The only spells with 497 are shawl procs, although a number of passive AA procs seem to use it. Apparently Arcane Fusion got that SPA added in the last year or so, although AA data isn't parsed nearly as frequently and changes don't get recorded so I'm not entirely sure.

    Raidloot parses 497 as an unknown SPA; EQResource parses it as "Exclude Spells that are Additionally Triggered." The SPA list calls it "497 - Ff_FocusCastProcNoBypass." It's worth noting that SPA 497 didn't exist until some time during 2017, so at some point it was added to a number of AA abilities without a patch note. I've never seen a dev comment on it, but I do wonder if it is intentional that this preclude Twincasts from proccing abilities.

    The point is 1) it's probably SPA 497 causing it to be 3% of # of casts and 2) it's not clear to me why SPA 497 is included or if this effect is intentional. I think this overall positive change to Arcane Fusion was definitely warranted, but it's a bit strange to me that two parts of the change, the inclusion of SPA 497 and the 100% crit rate, cater more to sustained DPS than burst. Removing the crit cap obviously helps burst, but it would still crit 100% of the time on a burn without any defined crit rate for the spell. Twincast rates are high overall, but they're 100% during burns (and therefore you lose out more on it not twincasting during burns than during sustained periods).

    Not saying there's anything wrong with a sustained increase, but if I were a dev I probably would've oriented Arcane Fusion to scale better on burns, as that's where Wizards are probably hurting more relative to other classes.

    Edit: And to be clear, since I'm not sure how to word it, I'm talking about it only having one chance to proc regardless of whether a cast Twincasts or not, which is what appears to be happening. Normally, each "part" of a Twincast has an independent chance to proc procs.
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  10. kizant Augur

    Just posting this to save some numbers for the future. Test still has the 1/2 fix so I was doing some parses on there. I'm just chaining ethereals with twincast spell on. I expect 1.37775% proc rate for an Ethereal based on SPA 383 and base1 of 3. With twinproc it could go up to 1.6533%. After 1000 casts I ended up with a 1.6% proc rate which fits pretty well. If it were based on hits you would think only counting the casts would be over 3%.

    I also just did a parse of a bunch of raids from last year. Adding up all the Ethereal casts for a total of 2,741 I have a 7.7% proc rate. The expected value if arcane fusion couldn't proc off a twincast would be around 5.5% taking twinproc into account. If you estimate a 40% twincast rate then you end up with about a 7.7% proc rate based on casts and that's what I saw. And I did just find examples of Arcane Fusion hitting twice in the same second, right after a twincast hit. So, I'm back be being pretty certain that's how it used to work.

    Since 497 is on the shawl proc you would think it would have been to prevent a proc from procing itself but it does seem like it prevents a twincast from procing anything. Which means that Arcane Fusion was nerfed at the beginning of TBL by about 40 or 50%. Whatever your average twincast rate happens to be on raids. In summary, after this change, we're basically back to where we were last year.
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  11. Brohg Augur

    but with a bit more flash since the hits are individually bigger? :)
  12. kizant Augur

    Oh yeah, it'll look much better doing the same damage as before!
  13. Cragzop Augur

    Live current data point (have full TBL/GMM raid gear … missing TBM eye) -

    After Empyr 1 & 2, Aalishai, and GMM 1-3 tonight, Arcane Fusion was just over 10k dps for me on the whole night parse (10125.8). That is just the raids, no trash clears … so at least a full burn on every event. It was about the same dps as chanter dissident strike over the same time period.

    24 hits in all. Min was 1.13M and Max was 2.21M.

    Honestly, I'd rather they just roll up the dps into something else and forget this idea ever existed (not because dps bad, but because having it be the same dps that I'm getting from someone else's spell every minute just feels sad).
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  14. kizant Augur

    I cast 706 spells that could proc Arcane Fusion and if you add twinproc you would expect about 25.4 of those to proc it. I ended up with 26 procs so the rate makes sense with what we talked about earlier.

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  15. Cragzop Augur

    I should point out that Sancus and Kizant liked my numbers (they are fast) before I went back and added my last paragraph above … so they may not agree with that. And I didn't have a bard in my group all evening (sad face). And we were even messing with some burns to help mages try a few things (I know, what the hell was I thinking).

    I guess as it is now, without any future aa upgrades, it will scale if we get new increases to crit damage (and higher values of luck). And it certainly falls in the slightly noticeable but clearly not overpowering ability … so an upgrade is not out of the realm of possibility. I just hope that they consider this change fixing something that was previously broken, rather than giving us more.

    Because we still need more.

    Thanks again to Kizant and Sancus for the parses and in-depth explanation of what's going on behind the scenes.
    Sancus likes this.
  16. kizant Augur

    I'm guessing they're not too concerned about TBL at this point. And they only have so many Wizard AAs to work with. We'll probably get another 50k base damage increase next time. If that happens then it should outpace everything else and maybe move up a couple spots. Maybe I'm just being hopeful but I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade it and it ends up doing 3.5% of our DPS or something. Personally, I think it should do a solid 5% but that may be a bit much. At least it's getting back to being worthwhile.
    Sancus likes this.
  17. Renotaki Elder

    Hi, It's me again. Just posting some cross referenced data to support what's up above.

    This top parse is last week's DPS for Sunday raids. it was a lil over 5000 seconds combat time, and so was this week's total combat time.

    and this bottom parse is this week's Arcane fusion DPS.

    Pretty much the same group makeup the whole night for both of these, and same route for clearing events.We had a lil oopsie and wiped on one of the events and had a bigger dps dip due to some coordination issues but that won't matter too much for Arcane Fusion's DPS probably. TBH, I'll take any DPS + and at least 5k more dps is over 1% more overall, right?
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