Ancient Cloak of Flames (raid item) off Death Beetle

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by Kelefane, Aug 23, 2013.

  1. Gnomeland Augur


    The Gambler's Fallacy is the idea that the 5001st mob must drop the ring because the first 5000 didn't drop it. This is false.

    The Law of Large Numbers is the idea that you have a >99.999% shot of seeing a ring in the first 5000 kills. This is not false.

    It's two different ways of talking about being due for a drop.The probability that you get a ring increases with each mob killed. Yet, the probability that each mob you kill drops the ring does not. Thus, the 5001st kill is equivalent to the 1st kill when it comes to the probability that you see a ring. But the shots of not seeing a ring in 5001 kills is tiny. The longer you flip the coin, the higher probability you have of scoring a heads.

    What I set out to argue against in this thread is the idea that there's no way to raise your chance of getting the ring because it's random - ie a fallacious application of the Gambler's Fallacy to argue that because the probability of getting a ring drop on the 1st kill is the same as the probability of getting a ring drop on the 1001st, there's no benefit to having killed 200, 500, etc. mobs. I see in the quote above that I made a slight error in conveying this - ie instead of saying that people who've killed 500 mobs and not seen a ring are due for a ring, which is false, I ought to have said that people who killed 500 mobs are bound to have seen a ring/see a ring within the next few hundred, which is correct.

    The problem with the italicized statement is that I conditioned on not seeing a ring after 500 mobs. You never want to do that, because even with a 1 in 500 drop rate, on average 63% of people already got a ring within their first 500 kills. The fact that you've killed 500 and not seen a ring has no bearing on whether you get a ring in the next 500, but the idea that you're due for ring after 1000 kills is legit. It's a conditional probability issue. By saying that the first 500 didn't yield a ring, we've already thrown away 500 rolls.
  2. MrGPAC Augur

    Fair enough...I wasn't really trying to argue one way or the other, but rather explain exactly what the Gamblers fallacy is...what you are stating is correct.

    No matter what the drop rate is:

    If you kill 0 mobs, your chances of getting a cloak to drop for you is 0%.
    If you kill 1 mob, your chance is >0%.

    Saying there is *nothing* you can do is false based on that premise alone. Killing 1 more mob will ALWAYS increase your chances over killing 0 more mobs, so just keep on trucking...odds are you eventually will get one if you put in enough time/effort.

    ~MrGPAC
  3. Gnomeland Augur

    There's another way in which saying that you're due for a drop is not equivalent to repeating the gambler's fallacy. Take the following exchange -

    A: I've killed 1,000 mobs and no ring drop. Does this **** even drop?
    B: Yeah, it does. From what I've seen over the last few weeks, people get their ring within the first few hundred. You're just not lucky, but don't worry, you're due for a drop soon.

    Provided we believe B, then A's experience of getting no drops in 1,000 kills is not normal - ie it's low probability.

    In that case, the idea that A's gonna have another experience of 1,000 kills with no drop is equally low probability. A thus has a much higher probability of having a normal experience with his next 1,000 kills and is therefore, relatively speaking, 'due for a drop.'
  4. MrGPAC Augur

    That's not entirely true and hinges on a few statements:

    1) "but don't worry, you're due for a drop soon."

    Define soon? Within the next 1,000 kills? Maybe it took them 24/7 killing since HH was released to get to 1,000 kills. Soon is a bad term and really shouldn't be used here...

    2) "A thus has a much higher probability of having a normal experience with his next 1,000 kills and is therefore, relatively speaking, 'due for a drop.'"

    The probability of them having the "normal experience" during his next 1,000 kills is the same as it was the first 1,000 kills. The probability of it dropping in his next 1,000 kills hasn't changed at all and he is no more "due for a drop" than he was during the first 1,000 kills. You CAN say: "If you kill another 1,000 mobs the odds are you will get a drop"...but even referencing the first 1,000 kills having any influence whatsoever on future actions means you have already fallen for the gamblers fallacy.

    The very concept of being "due for a drop" means you've already fallen prey to the fallacy...

    ~MrGPAC
  5. Blademaster Elder

    After spending a great deal of time in both SolB and CMM my experience has been around 0.1% drop chance. Mob sample approx 7000.
  6. Vlerg Augur

    I lost count of how many mob I killed..h roughly 100 hours spent in MMC and sol B... only saw one ring drop.

    I can only say I did not like this HH moment at all.
  7. --Voodoo-- Augur

    It's the same as the probability was before the first 1000. However, after those first 1000 without a drop, we know that the actual probability for those kills was 0%. So relatively speaking the 2nd 1000 does have a higher probability. Not because the 2nd 1000 was raised, but because the 1st 1000 was lowered.

    To be strictly technical, "due" wouldn't be a correct term. But it is a concise and accurate enough way to say, "bad luck isn't likely to continue", which I think is what he was trying to say.
  8. Blademaster Elder


    Unfortunately time means little, I've seen some people killing one mob every 20 seconds and others killing every 2 minutes. The reality is the former groups chances are six times better that the latter in the same amount of time.

    I actually enjoyed the SolB and CMM HH, the chaser items are worth the chase and when you get them it's a "FIST PUMPING MOMENT". The exp in the zones is good, almost that of T4 ROF. The lower level HH were however pointless for me, not saying that other didn't enjoy them though.
  9. Tulisin_Dragonflame Augur

    I know it wasn't the point you were trying to make, but 1 mob every 20 seconds is largely unsustainable unless the zone is mostly empty. There's a reason so many people are choosing to molo instead of group in these zones. A full group is not going to sustain 600 % the kill rate, but it is going to greatly reduce your chances of getting a zonewide rare if it drops. 3 people + 3 DPS mercs work extremely well too, since you get a lot of the damage of a full group without the amount of people rolling, but you still run into issues with not enough mobs.
  10. Blademaster Elder

    Agreed, being on the opposite side of the world from the majority of players sometimes has it's advantages.
    I have a core group so there was no rolling, just a predetermined loot order. Once I got my cloak and rings I still spent days in those zones until the other guys had theirs. I do sympathise with people who don't know anyone for events like these but it does place emphasis on getting to know people and playing with them enough so that there is a level of trust and investment in each others characters which the majority of gameplay doesn't require.
  11. Kurayami Augur


    What? Couldn't hear that, was too busy boxing and holding all loot for ransom. Well in between aug camps/helping some random person to ignore HH a day or two.

    In all seriousness though, these core groups are really rare, some guy moloing it up or box groups clearing entire areas out is far more common to see. Unity is not what I see happening, I see polarity. Still, it is far less rare to see others helping get augs/clickies, such as noble's blood, the gargoyle aug, maid's aug, and the chestplate of the darkflame. These zonewide rares though? Great that you have that setup, but it is totally not what I see happening, the people getting into groups are the ones agreeing not to roll for rings/cloaks if they drop, and that is only if they are nice as they are typically less dps than a wiz merc :p
  12. Insaneox Augur

    RNG system is flawed. To make it work little more fair would take complicated programming and that isn't going to happen. We just have to live with current system even when seems to favor only those that can live online or have very good luck. As for cloak I spent close to 36 hours for zero drop. But while doing augment and bp click in MM ended up with 2 rings. Figures always get things when not trying for them.
  13. gcubed Augur

    Oh no, you aren't getting away with that.

    Explain what you mean by flawed and what you mean by fair.
  14. Sklak Journeyman

    Pretty sure the odds per kill are in the ballpark of 1/1000 (+/- 30%)
    Chance of 0 drops in 4000 kills, given 1/1000 drop rate = 1.8%, quite unlucky
    Unfortunately you still have that same 1.8% chance that your NEXT 4000 kills will still have no drop...
    1/1000 probability implies:
    39% of groups will see 1 or more cloaks in next 500 kills
    63% of groups will see 1 or more cloaks in next 1000 kills
    95% of groups will see 1 or more cloaks in next 3000 kills
    If across all servers there were say... 400 groups hunting cloaks that killed 6000 mobs each, 1 of these groups would be expected to still have seen no cloak after 6000 kills (glad I'm not in that group!)

    Given largest sample quoted in thread (7000 kills at 1/1000 drop rate), combined with my personal experience (4 drops in ~3500 kills), odds that the drop rate is 1/200 or better is basically null (far less than 1 in a billion chance that we've just been terribly unlucky and should have played the powerball lottery instead).

    Again with same combined sample (11 drops in 10500 kills), odds that drop rate is 1/500 or better is only about 1%. Likely range is somewhere between 1/700 and 1/1200.
  15. Ruven_BB Augur

    What is confusing the matter is people are combining the cloak and ring drops. The ring drops seem consistent with the drops of the cloak prior to Sol B zone fix.

    After the fix, the cloak drop rate decreased big time while the ring drop rate remains the same.

    Of course this is all speculation based on my 4,500 kills with nothing to show for it beyond bat collections which now puts me at 1.1 percent of unlucky players while 98.9 percent would have gotten a drop if the probability is 1 in 1000.
  16. Kurayami Augur

    Your probability of getting a cloak/ring is inversely proportional to the amount of time spent posting here about what the probability might be.
  17. Ruven_BB Augur

    I'm doomed then!
  18. Zandal Journeyman

    Confirmation or Denial by SOE that the drop rate was changed please? Sure seems like it to a lot of players, including those who already have theirs. I have seen multiple posts in multiple threads, but I have not seen a denial by anyone at SOE that they nerfed the drop rate. Personally, I believe I have spent over 55 hours in the zone, having killed 1000's upon 1000's of mobs and have not seen a one. Only three explanations. The RNG is just evil to me; the RNG has been jacked with (meaning nerfed by SOE); or my account is jacked up.
  19. Kurayami Augur


    Forgot the 4th option, you have a UI issue where the ring graphic won't show up!
  20. Zandal Journeyman

    Doubt that to be the case Kurayami.

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