Item drop probabilities on raids may need adjustment.

Discussion in 'The Veterans' Lounge' started by Ruven_BB, Jun 5, 2018.

  1. Ngreth Thergn Developer

    The chance for Talendor's Trophy is 15%. It is the same on all servers where the raid is available. (It takes a large amount of effort to make a drop on a common NPC different on different servers (We are more likely to make NPC's different per server, and this is certainly not the case on this.))

    The only "issue" is if there is a problem with the corpse. It will be a few days until I have an answer to that.
  2. Sancus Augur

    Is there a condition that makes the trophy more likely to drop?

    Based on the available data, it seems statistically improbable that it has a 15% drop rate. Valhallah's had 22 clears with 0 drops - 0.85 ^ 22 (the probability of it not dropping 22 times consecutively) is 2.8%. That's a non-zero possibility, but unlikely. In RoI, we've done 26 clears and had 1 drop - a 3.8% drop rate. RoTE has 21 clears, so a 3.3% chance to not drop. MS likely has at least 25 clears, although they might've split raided it too and actually have more, and they've seen 3 drops. That's a 12% drop rate, and the highest of any guild here. RoV has 2 over what's probably 21 or 22 clears.

    I might've missed a guild (I skipped TR and SoD because they beat Talendor later and would have fewer kills), but just using those guilds - 115 clears and 6 drops is about 5.2%. There are more complicated statistical tests to determine the likelihood of the probability being 15% given 115 data points that I don't remember how to do at this point, but I feel confident in saying it's extremely unlikely that the drop rate is actually 15%. Given no one has reported it getting stuck in the advanced loot window and the corpse despawning, I'm kinda skeptical that that's the issue.
  3. Sokki Still Won't Buff You!!

    From what I remember we've only had it drop 1 time as well. I could be wrong, but I only remember seeing it 1 time in all of our clears which is probably around the same amount as RoI.
  4. Thunderkiks Augur

    You're right. We got one right away and haven't seen it since.
  5. Smokezz The Bane Crew

    24 Talendor runs for us.
  6. Sancus Augur

    Thanks, that brings it to 7 in 144 clears, or ~4.9% drop rate.
    Maedhros likes this.
  7. Deillusional Augur

    16 clears here.
  8. Raynard Augur

    Probability that the drop rate is actually 15%, and this deviation from the expected 21.6 drops is purely chance is 0.17% (Chi^2 test, p=0.0017).
  9. Gnomereaper Augur

    Math makes my head hurt, at this point in the game just have it drop 1/4 raids. You do 20 raids, you get 3-6. That's enough to end migraines with people leaving guilds for greener pastures and taking their trophies with them or leaving the game altogether. Plus some people are magpies and like to collect things like this.
  10. Powerful Elder


    Trophy has dropped twice for Scarlet Vengeance with 19 clears.
  11. Sancus Augur

    Thanks guys, that's 9 in 179 clears, or ~5%. It's incredibly likely that something is amiss.
  12. Powerful Elder

    Sorry, Sancus. I meant to say 15 clears, not 19.
  13. Ngreth Thergn Developer

    I'm not sure how anyone ever got a trophy. As far as I can tell Talendor has been No-corpse since beta (It was changed to "no-corpse dragon" from "magical" on 8/2/2017 3:32:38 PM)
    From what I got speaking to the raid designer, It was an oversight that he was made no-corpse.
    No-corpse NPC's disappear on death, even if they have something on them. (like the Trophy)

    I have a ticket setup to fix it. I'll be moving the trophy to the bag with the hero's forge armor (the main chest is full... ) AND making Talendor only a "dragon" (not a "no-corpse dragon") so you can get your victorious screenshots.

    No I don't know if I'll be able to get a hotfix for it. I have to ask around first.
    IblisTheMage, Xeladom, Sancus and 4 others like this.
  14. Cleaver Augur


    Maybe they should hot fix instances freezing the client first :)

    As for how anyone got it. There has to be a delay between poofing and death maybe 1 server tick and someone probably spam clicked it and got lucky.
  15. Ngreth Thergn Developer

    and if they do, I *might* be able to ride on that. but sometimes they also want changes like that to be "clean" of other changes. Yes. The problem with HA's is very likely to get a hotfix. I don't know the probability of the change to the Trophy hotfixed.
  16. Warpeace Augur

    There has been so much lag on FV raids many raid mechanics are not working as intended. Cant speak for other servers maybe they can chime in.
  17. Horyuken Augur

    So what I take from this is the NO-Corpse code fails to work about 5% of the time :)


    IblisTheMage, Sokki and Smokezz like this.
  18. Maedhros High King

    Thanks very much Ngreth!
  19. NameAlreadyInUse #CactusGate

    This isn't an issue that affects me (my guild is still stuck on Kar'zok in EoK), but I wanted to give props on the great communication! Thank you!
    Maedhros likes this.
  20. Sokki Still Won't Buff You!!

    Ya this is my guess. I know when it dropped for us it was in the Loot Window for a couple seconds before our Raid looter grabbed it. I'm guessing the delay is a server tick or less if you get lucky enough for it to happen. So a 2 step process, get one to drop and then get lucky enough to see a server delay when it happens lol
    Maedhros likes this.