Discussion in 'Gotham City (General Gameplay)' started by Trended, Jun 16, 2022.
Now imagine if you throw that die 40 times.
Yeah that's 40 times a 5 out of 100 chance of getting the Premium Reward. In other words you're not guaranteed the Premium Reward no matter how many boxes you open. The odds overall certainly do go up but the chance for each BB remains the same.
Same kind of thing happened for me when the Cosmic Chromas were first offered. Only opened three or four BBs and managed to snag two Cosmic Chromas. Meanwhile there were other BBs where I either never saw the top offering or got it after more than three purchases.
This time around? Two Gleaming boxes and a Smoke or Nimbus box (it's one or the other, can't remember which one right now).
*shrug* Random is random, and all that.
That would suck. It would also be consistent with the math. Someone's individual capacity to not understand probability doesn't change how that works. That sample size isn't large enough to smooth out the outliers. Sometimes I wish they wouldn't have loot boxes just so I don't feel like Sisyphus trying to explain math to people in every thread.
We did not use the E word for any of those bundles.
We can still read the original ads. Plasmic was Exclusive. Nimbus was Exclusive. Smoke was confusing. The ad didn't say it was exclusive, but BuzzWerd posted that Plasmic, Nimbus and Smoke would never, ever come back. Buzz was cleared up a comma mistake and said that Red Plasmic and Blue Plasmic were not exclusive.
Since Booster Bundle 4 (Radiant) they have never used exclusive or only available again.
I would bet there was a heated Dev Debate and Discussion over the Smoke Aura, and the consensus was to follow BuzzWerd's edict in making the Smoke an exclusive one.
Another question if you see this is if it ever returns can you keep the bb rares out of the uncommon drops such as dont do what you done with the solar radiant and glimmering as i feel like these items should stay rare. I know nothing can be done about solar and radiant and glimmering and am not complaining.
Like other new Booster Bundle Auras in the past, this Radiant Aura will only be in this Booster Bundle and won't return.
The reality is, it doesn't matter, the terms of service you agreed to allowed for this cosmetic return, deal with, accept it, move on, just saying.
I'd suggest there was probably discussion about bringing all of them back, but they left those big original three off not because they weren't entirely justified to bring back in a contractual sense but they just decided it might annoy just a few too many people (and here you are still annoyed at the radiant lol)
This has nothing to do with whether or not they can or can't bring anything back, the terms are clear, they can reintroduce anything back in to the game in any way they deem fit at their absolute and sole discretion.
Truth in advertising matters. If something is sold under the premise that it's limited run and not returning (as it was stated) it's betraying that trust. It was pretty clearly started on the advertisement and AS OF THIS POINT was set by precedent. As of yesterday we have a new precedent in that what is stated in the adverts, may or may not be stuck to later....as is their prerogative. They already set that precedent on owned DLCs and the Lair pack....so here's just another example for BB 'limited' styles. However it's our prerogative to not give a crap about any of it and avoid buying stuff for RL cash that will be easy enough to come by in game later.
They could also just delete all your toons because they don't like the name Proxystar....but I'd bet you'd have an issue with that....even though they COULD do it. Now I'd assume they wouldn't do that....but hey....you never know.
I understand and entirely appreciate what you're saying I really do, I have the exclusive auras, I could approach this with a mentality that we preserve this exclusivity at all costs and I have in the past, It should be remembered that I stand to gain far more from choosing your viewpoint than I gain from choosing to be non caring as to the exclusive rights.
You have to remember that the advertising used at every point in time comes coupled with all the games terms and conditions, one being that these items can be reintroduced, so yes, even if they are sold as exclusive, you need to understand that in a video game, it might be getting sold as "exclusive" but that doesn't necessarily ever mean it is; even if it's not liked and even if it's perceived as some as being a little shady, those terms are there and need to be at the forefront of any thought process, you disregard them at your own peril.
And bare in mind as per my first paragraph I quite literally have no horse in this race lol, I stand to gain nothing with their reintroduction, I stand to lose.
p.s. your last sentence is entirely accurate, in the same sense that they can also terminate your entire account on a whim, that being said I think some people have lost sight of what I'm actually saying, I'm not saying they will come back, I am saying that they could (and might) and preparing expectations around that potential isn't exactly a bad thing it would however be a bad thing to expect their return as a guarantee also, but there's no harm in holding hope lol
Did you notice, those are not in the Remix Bundle.
The resurgence is popular, but I would argue that is also due to it being an actual value bundle with the stabilizers for those who want to get anything from the quark vendor, I think DackMan made an actual value eval for the booster bundle and it’s uh, pretty under value for a bundle… the majority of people do buy the booster for the exclusive reward, returning this yearly removes that aspect entirely and logically so, removes the FOMO of it. Games with timed exclusive events do well because of FOMO, I’m no accountant, but I am a betting man and I would put my house on them losing money from every bundle onwards if they confirmed this will be returning yearly.
Here... we.... go.
Simply put, in any probability analysis the two variables that take account of the chance of an event happening are N (number of trials) and λ (lambda – our hit rate/probability of occurrence in a single interval).
Assuming all trials are independent, let us say that the chance of an event occurring in a single trial is 2.00% (or 1/50 as you stated). However, if we conduct 100 trials, we find that the probability now increases to 86.74%.
How did we calculate this? The probability (μ) is a function of N and λ as follows:
i.e. 1-(1-0.02)^100 = 0.8674
In this context, the law of large numbers demonstrates that an event that has a low probability of occurring in a single trial now has a high probability of occurring across a large number of trials.
I never stated any sort of number, such as 1/50. I'll also point out that just because something has an 87% chance of happening...THERE'S STILL THE 13% CHANCE OF IT NOT HAPPENING. Unlikely things happen all of the time. I don't think anyone would disagree that the more you open, your chance of getting the item you want increases. The IMPORTANT part is, though, that it never GUARANTEES you getting the desired outcome.
In reality, Mepps repeatedly confirms that "exclusive" means "exclusive" and what doesn't matter is what anyone else thinks. He just said so above, again.
No matter how much you wish to ignore the differences between a legal right to do something and a verbal promise not to do something, they're not remotely the same thing. That something is legal hardly changes whether or not they've promised not to do that thing. Non-legal promises are moral issues, not legal issues.
Mepps confirms above that "the e word," meaning "exclusive," was used to describe certain bundles, which we were assured would "never return."
"Blahblahblah TOS legal" changes that not in the slightest. Or you can explain to Mepps what he means by "exclusive"; clearly he has reaffirmed that "exclusive" means "exclusive," and that that's what DCUO intends to honor.
Can some future regime reverse that decision? Of course. But meantime, "EXCLUSIVE" MEANS "EXCLUSIVE."
Who the heck are you arguing with? Nobody has ever ever ever denied that the TOS says what it says and that DCUO can do as it wishes with digital assets. Nobody.
You're defending a company line that the company doesn't hold! "We have the right to do what we like regarding exclusivity" is not an argument either Mepps or any other employee of the company has ever made. It's obviously a true observation, but exercising that right is obviously not DCUO's policy for the foreseen future.
That's clearly just a fact. Until DCUO announces a policy change, this is the policy.
I'd suggest learning to live with that, but your time is your own.
Corwin Quantum didn't suggest otherwise.
Welcome to the point I've been making the entire time, perhaps if we spent less time talking past each other, that goes both ways
Again to reiterate the point, I have every single OG exclusive item, I couldn't give two *****, whether they stay exclusive or get released again, let's make that point abundantly clear lest there be some attempt to portray me as being "thirsty" or "desperate" for a re release, with that in mind it makes virtually the entire last part of your post entirely irrelevant in terms of the context surrounding my view.
Legally speaking the terms of service allow for the items to be reintroduced, despite the fact this isn't "current policy", you have however admitted that this policy could change and if it were to change, the terms would entirely support them in that change, so thanks for that admission - that is indeed the point I've made all along
As for whether or not they should come back, people can continue to advocate for a policy change, just as you can advocate for no change. Personally I just don't care so am fine with them releasing them again because I'm not trying to preserve some level of pixel uniqueness in a 11 year old video game
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