Really? 3 90% failures in a row!

Discussion in 'Gotham City (General Gameplay)' started by Nichalus, Feb 9, 2018.

  1. Nichalus Active Player

    Have done 3 LvL 60 Breakthroughs, with a 90% chance of success, and all three failed in a row. The odds against this are fairly astronomical. Did the hamster in the machine die?
    • Like x 1
  2. Twilight Avenged Dedicated Player

    It helps motivate the need for Seals or the Replay Badges needed to replay the now loot locked content.
    • Like x 4
  3. Nichalus Active Player

    Wow...this thread was quickly moved
  4. the solowing Steadfast Player

    still that 10% chance of failure my man, unless its 100% nothing is entirely certain
    • Like x 1
  5. 9001BPM Steadfast Player

    I feel for you dude, that’s awful. I can only suggest you use your loyalty points to load up on seals as I do :-S
  6. Nichalus Active Player

    While there 'is' that slim chance at 90%, but when you make the second attempt, the odds are more highly in your favor...with a third attempt even more so.

    Methinks that what Twilight stated above is a more apt response. Ergo....they have it rigged so you will fail and have to use/purchase Replays to gain the required items.
  7. Giga Vamm Dedicated Player

    Nichalus is 1 in 1000 based on what happened. He should feel unique. He's not one in a million, but 1 in 1000 is still pretty unique. :D
    • Like x 1
  8. Hytch Well-Known Player

    Neverwinter has a similar system with their artifact items where you need their version of seals to prevent loss and it is based on certain percentages. The difference is that the higher it gets the percentage chance drops drastically. Some high level artifacts can have a 1% chance to upgrade unless you have a seal.
    So at least this isn't as bad as that.
  9. Shark Dental Devoted Player

    Actually, that's not really true. You always have the same probability of failure: 1/10. Past successes or failures have nothing to do with the likelihood of present ones.

    However, with large numbers (in the realm of 100 or more), eventually the overall probability settles into a general number.

    You can fail seven times in a row, and then not fail 60 times in a row, etc. But eventually it evens out to 10% failure.
    • Like x 6
  10. Giga Vamm Dedicated Player

    The odds of rolling a specific number on a six sided die are 1/6. The odds of rolling that again are 1/36. The odds of rolling it again are 1/216. So yes, the odds do reduce each time. This is essentially a 10 sided die with only one side being bad. The odds of rolling that bad side three times in a row is 1/1000.
    • Like x 1
  11. Mr Furious Well-Known Player

    "chance" is a philosophical construct we use to come to terms with things that we have no control over.
  12. Shark Dental Devoted Player

    Yeah, I get what you're saying, and I shouldn't have used the word "odds."

    What I meant is that each "roll" or breakthrough is an independent event. In other words, the outcome of the first has no bearing on the outcome of the second. The same thing with the third time, etc. They don't stack.

    Looking from outside the box, after everything is said and done, at the total probability that something like this would happen, yeah, it would be a probability of 1/1000. That makes sense because we don't hear stories of this happening much.

    But, because each breakout is independent, even if he goes to breakthrough right now, he's no more likely to succeed or fail than he was before. He still has a chance of 1/10 of succeeding or failing.
    • Like x 3
  13. Arwen Skywalker Loyal Player

    • Like x 4
  14. Fatal Star 10000 Post Club

    Cause bad luck isn't a bug
    • Like x 1
  15. Erin Arror Dedicated Player

    (1/10) * (1/10) * (1/10) = .001

    The odds of running into that is not normal.

    integer division... memory buffer / cache resend the failure from #1 attempt on his 2nd, 3rd retry because it didn't reset properly...etc.

    Prbly hard to diagnose; but if you want send a support ticket and see what they say.
    • Like x 3
  16. Shark Dental Devoted Player

    Not likely, no. But not necessarily broken. But there's nothing wrong sending a support ticket to double check. If it were a programming error, it would seem probable (there's that word again, lol) that lots of people would be experiencing and mentioning it.
    • Like x 1
  17. >>>KIra<<< Dedicated Player

    Just last night i was doing a break through and the first and second tries were failures, but on the third i had a success. \o/ I bought 3 seals from the market place fortunately. ;)
  18. Arwen Skywalker Loyal Player

    Joking aside, I experienced the same 3 breakthrough failures at 90%. Unlike OP, who made a thread, I just gave up entirely on artifacts.
    • Like x 5
  19. Reinheld Devil's Advocate

    I've had 2 in a row at 80 breakthrough....3 is pretty bad. Like my luck with exceptional recovery kits. "recovers 66% to 100% of exobytes, but mostly 66%". Can't stress enough, use those seals.

    I do wish you could buy a seal from Constantine, or if they were an ultra rare drop on cat runs, but yeah, 500K from the broker is not bad. I bought a bunch at 300K or so when everyone bought them on sale and re-sold. Still have a handful.

    Was trying to attach a '60% of the time, it works every time' meme, but gave up finding one that would attach.

    • Like x 1
  20. Shark Dental Devoted Player


    Back by popular demand.
    • Like x 2