Booster box opening 20 theory

Discussion in 'Gotham City (General Gameplay)' started by Snot557, Jun 16, 2022.

  1. KneelBeforeZodd Dedicated Player

    You are confusing 2 things. As you open more boxes, the odds of one of them not being a premium box gets smaller, but that is only because you are taking a random number in a discrete, uniformly distributed set of integers. The problem is: The only 100% guarantee you'll get is by opening a infinite number of boxes.

    If you toss a coin 10000 times, it's veeeeeeery likely you'll get tails at least once, but it's not 100%. I got 2 premium boxes in a row on my first and second tries, but you might never get one in your lifetime.
  2. Reinheld Devil's Advocate

    *cough* rubbing it in *cough*
  3. MAGNETOxxFirstClass 15000 Post Club


    No.

    Ask ObsidianChill. ;)


    Heck between me... Balkan and ObsidianChill.... we opened 40 BB.... and not a single Premium Box.
  4. MAGNETOxxFirstClass 15000 Post Club


    Lucky you. :)
    • Like x 1
  5. MAGNETOxxFirstClass 15000 Post Club


    It used to be 2B at first,,,, but It seems to be 3+B right now and climbing. :(
  6. Quantum Edge Devoted Player


    2B or not 2B, that is the question.
    • Like x 1
  7. KneelBeforeZodd Dedicated Player

    Even my grandgrandgrandson will have to know about this
    • Like x 2
  8. Punkpirate Well-Known Player

    300 bucks down here not a single prem box, and some are in WTS chat "selling 14 prem boxes" -.- , I said i learned my lesson last time, but i didn't, next booster if not a guaranteed item after wasting 100 dollars on a 2011 year game I wont, i will buy some Marvel mobile game loot boxes instead to throw it in devs faces :D
    • Like x 1
  9. RavNoc Dedicated Player

    Hey now, don't blame the devs. It's the higher-ups that make them implement such things and raking in all the cash :p
    • Like x 2
  10. Swamarian Committed Player


    20 boxes give a little over 64% chance of getting one, if the probability's 5%. 50 boxes give a little over 92%.
    https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/probability
    Over on the Star Trek Online forums, they'd do the math any time someone complained about opening a bunch of boxes, trying to get a ship, explaining why it's a sucker's bet.
    • Like x 1
  11. Reinheld Devil's Advocate

    Ok. So....just to tempt me, a buddy opened 3 last night. Got a Radiant, Cosmic and....Premium box. Then my other buddy we were running with decided to take a shot and opened 1....and got a frigging Premium. They both asked 'so...you mad?' And I responded 'No, that's awesome....I've spent nothing on them, so why would I be mad at your good luck?'. Even if I had opened some, I wouldn't be mad at THEM if I came up empty...I'd be mad at myself for taking the bait.

    However, it cemented my decision not to buy any, because now I am 100% positive I would NOT get a premium if opening 1....3... or any other amount of boxes.

    But, apparently SOME people can get lucky...so...yea? You all keep opening them and if I feel like getting one, I'll 'find' some extra cash to do it with if needed...in game.
    • Like x 1
  12. Punkpirate Well-Known Player

    I think they have some algorythm in place that sees if you are a frequent paying customer just to milk more money of you, im now up to 375 dollars and not a SINGLE F prembox , i swear .... And i get so much aura boxes tried to sell them I barley made 1 bil but prem box goes for 2.5-4bil now , I think i need to sue the company, we all remember how battlefront 2 lootboxes went bye bye , this is ridiculous ...
    • Like x 1
  13. Hraesvelg Always Right


    [IMG]
    • Like x 2
  14. RavNoc Dedicated Player

    I actually bring up this conspiracy theory all the time for years lol, because my luck is always atrocious (I've still NEVER gotten the rare item from a capsule before, even after opening hundreds). New accounts seem to always have better luck (friends who just started and also my GF when she started got rares within first 3 opens). But it's just that, a conspiracy theory, so we really shouldn't talk about it on the forums or we are gonna get in trouble :)
    • Like x 1
  15. SethZoulMonEl 10000 Post Club

    It would take roughly 135 boxes to be essentially guaranteed (99.9% chance). 1-(1-0.05)^135=0.99902

    One person in 1,000 would still have bad luck.
  16. FoolsFire Devoted Player

    This is a good life lesson which parallels the Powerball Lottery.

    + Person buys one ticket because jackpot is $20M.
    + Same person buys twenty tickets because jackpot is now $300M.
    + Same person buys one hundred tickets because jackpot is now $750M.
    + Person buys one ticket because jackpot was won and now is back to $20M.

    In each of these cases the chances of winner are exactly the same for EVERY SINGLE TICKET.

    Yet there are people, and I really feel sorry for them, who won the $20M only a week after someone won the $750M. Yeah, they won a prize but damn the difference is a little unsettling.

    And let us not forget The Phil Donahue Show (think 1970's Oprah) who had the man on who won an Illinois jackpot THREE TIMES. He bought the ticket from the same store which had an eerie history of selling winning tickets. Even though all of those winning numbers were picked by the computer.
    • Like x 1
  17. SirHyper New Player

    So this is a probability theory problem and this experiment follows a geometric distribution, the expected number of trials until a success is 19 for a probability of success of 5%, if it was 7% that would drop to around 13, the devs know what they're doing...
  18. Essential Exobyte Committed Player

    Here’s a tip: if you open your wallet all the way up, the better your chances of getting what you want.
  19. lllStrichcodelll ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    I strongly disagree.

    If you sell all the drops you get and re-sell that money on those atrocious money websites, you can turn 200$ easily into 10$. :D
    • Like x 1
  20. Illumin411 Loyal Player

    Sounds like Underwear Gnome logic. Hmmm
    • Like x 1